According to often-right pollster Ann Selzer, Democrat Kamala Harris is leading the race in Iowa. That would mean other metrics are underestimating Harris’ popularity.
A recent presidential election poll from the US state of Iowa has caused great attention among election experts. If the measurement is correct, the Democrats Horrible Harris the chances of winning are better than you think.
Local newspaper Des Moines Register according to published polls, Harris would win the election in the state of Iowa with 47 percent of the vote, while the Republican Donald Trump would get 44 percent of the votes.
This would be a big change, because in previous elections Trump has won in Iowa by clear numbers.
If this were indeed the case, other opinion polls that show an even race might underestimate Harris’s popularity across the country, and especially in the midwestern angel states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
These states are quite similar in population to Iowa, so their voters tend to move in the same direction in elections.
The three midwestern latitude states are in a decisive position. If Harris wins all of them, plus the states considered safe for him, he will get enough electoral votes and win the election.
This is the situation in the Libra state according to the averages of opinion polls:
The opinion polling legend is often successful
In general, election experts do not pay attention to individual measurements, but follow the averages of opinion polls. Even in Iowa, all other opinion polls show that Trump is in a clear lead.
However, the recent measurement has been done by an Iowa opinion polling veteran Ann Selzerwhich has a legendary reputation among experts. His polls in Iowa have been very close to the final result in almost every election in recent years.
Selzer’s measurements have moved in a favorable direction for the Democrats in recent months. As recently as September, his polls showed Trump leading by four percentage points in Iowa, while in June Trump was leading his then-opponent Joe Biden by as much as 18 percentage points.
Election expert Nate Silver invites in his blog Publicizing Selzer’s measurement as a bold move. According to him, in order to protect their reputation, pollsters may not publish studies that clearly differ from the results of others.
However, Silver is not convinced that Selzer is right this time. Silver’s mathematical model estimates that Trump has about an 83 percent chance of winning Iowa. According to Silver’s model, the entire election situation is almost completely equal.
Candidates at levels in other measurements
Other opinion polls published over the weekend show a very even race.
The New York Times and Siena University a respected poll in the Libra state shows Harris with a 3 percentage point lead in Nevada, a 2 percentage point lead in North Carolina and Wisconsin and a 1 percentage point lead in Georgia.
Trump, on the other hand, would be leading by four percentage points in Arizona. Pennsylvania and Michigan seem to be tied. All the differences between the candidates fit within the margin of error.
According to the survey, voters who made their decision at the very last moment would prefer Harris. 55 percent of them would vote for Harris and 44 percent for Trump.
Opinion survey by television channel NBC on the other hand, it seems that the candidates are completely equal nationwide. This is bad news for Harris. Because of the electoral system, Trump has a better chance of winning the race, even if he gets as many or fewer votes than Harris.