Kamala Harris, the current US vice-president, will be officially sworn in for the White House race between August 19 and 22. She has obtained the support of the biggest Democratic figures, such as Barack Obama and the Clintons.
Kamala Harris has obtained the most significant support in her camp. The day after Joe Biden withdrew from the race for the White House, bigwigs of the Democratic Party had already announced their support for the current vice president. The president had called on all Democrats to be behind her. A message heard by the Clinton couple, Elizabeth Warren, Nancy Pelosi and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. It was then former President Barack Obama who gave her his support, Friday July 26, on X: “Earlier this week, Michelle and I called our friend Kamala Harris. We told her that we think she would make a fantastic president of the United States and that she had our full support.” In a video, we see Kamala Harris answering the phone to Barack and Michelle Obama, who confided in her their joy at seeing her take Joe Biden’s place in the presidential race, all in a very friendly tone.
Earlier this week, Michelle and I called our friend @KamalaHarris. We told her we think shell makes a fantastic President of the United States, and that she has our full support. At this critical moment for our country, were going to do everything we can to make sure she wins in pic.twitter.com/0UIS0doIbA
— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) July 26, 2024
She is assured of the support of more than 2,500 party delegates, significantly more than the 1,976 needed to secure the nomination. However, she will not be officially nominated until August 19 with the formal counting of delegate votes.
What do the polls say?
Now, Democrats have their eyes fixed on the results of the polls. And those carried out after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, show real momentum for Kamala Harris. The survey Quinnipiac of July 22 gives it 47% against 49% for Donald Trump. The survey Morning Consult The July 22 poll gives voting intentions of around 45% for the Democrat and 47% for the Republican, but an important element to note: Kamala Harris was six points behind until then, she is now only two.
US Vice President Kamala Harris will indeed be the Democratic candidate for the November 5 presidential election. She is assured of the support of more than 2,500 party delegates, significantly more than the 1,976 needed to secure the nomination. However, she will not be officially nominated until August 19 and the formal counting of delegate votes.
Launched in the race for the White House only 4 months before the election, she has especially become a few days after the withdrawal of Joe Biden – who asked all Democrats to support her – the natural contender of her camp. Several liberal bigwigs, perceived as potential rivals, have also pledged allegiance to her. It must be said that the express campaign that is announced for her is forcing her camp to come together.
But the poll trend is clearly in favor of Kamala Harris. Compared to Joe Biden’s candidacy, she is doing better in all categories of voters: African-Americans, Latin Americans, WASPs. She records a net gain among male voters and among independent voters. She also gains 7 points among the least educated voters. According to this poll, moreover, Biden’s withdrawal seems to have prompted introspection among some Republican voters: 27% believe that Trump should be replaced as the Republican candidate, a figure that is on the rise.
As a reminder, the American election is played out state by state, each of them giving the candidates a batch of votes through the electors at the end of the vote. It is therefore the polls identified at this scale that are relevant to have a vision of the probable results of this American presidential election. And it is on this ground that the Democrats can have some hope: in the decisive states, the Swing States that can swing the election, Kamala Harris is doing better than Joe Biden, according to the New York Times. She is notably given the lead in the very strategic state of Virginia and is tied in Pennsylvania. Here is the map of the projections of the Democratic and Republican votes, updated daily:
Donald Trump refuses debate
On July 25, Kamala Harris said she was ready to debate with Donald Trumpfour months before the election. But he deemed it “inopportune” to organize a face-to-face with his new opponent. The Republican candidate had nevertheless agreed to a debate on September 10. It now seems that he is backpedaling, believes the Democratic candidate on X. In a press release, Donald Trump’s team justifies this change of mind: “It would be inopportune to schedule anything with Harris because the Democrats could very well change their minds.”
His age and his career as assets
The central question remains: can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump, who has a convinced electorate and is further strengthened by the consequences and combative image displayed after the assassination attempt on July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania? The American billionaire’s team has already sharpened its weapons against Kamala Harris: management of immigration, record in California where Kamala Harris was a prosecutor, personality and unflattering nickname (“Laughing Kamala”, to mock her bursts of laughter, considered not to be a sign of seriousness)… The arguments are already ready.
Conversely, Kamala Harris has several aces up her sleeve to counter Donald Trump and turn the campaign around. Her personal journey is impressive and the vice president knows how to remind people of this. “I am the empirical proof of the promise of America,” she regularly explains, she the African-American from an academic background who became the first woman to be elected district attorney of San Francisco, before becoming attorney general of California from 2011 to 2017.
Her integrity, with her pedigree as a prosecutor, in the face of a Republican candidate already convicted by the courts and still being prosecuted in several cases, is shaping up to be campaign arguments, like her energy already demonstrated in the Senate when she emerged as one of the faces of the opposition to… Donald Trump during the Republican magnate’s term.
Her energy but also her youth could end up seducing the Democratic camp. At 59 years old, the possible candidacy of Kamala Harris would send to oblivion the announced duel between the two seniors Biden-Trump, respectively 81 and 78 years old. Enough to mobilize the Democratic electorate more? In polls published in recent days while a possible withdrawal of Joe Biden was already making headlines, in the event of a duel between Trump and Kamala Harris, the gap was only two points in favor of the Republican candidate. An insufficient margin for Trump before possible debates and speeches by his possible future opponent.