From Fort Brégançon, Emmanuel Macron continues his consultations before announcing the name of the new Prime Minister, “around August 15”. A Republican and a Socialist seem to be in the running.
The essential
- Emmanuel Macron is refining his thinking about the composition of the future government. An announcement could be made “around August 15” regarding the new Prime Minister, “without excluding that it could go quickly”, after the Council of Ministers convened on August 12, confides a close friend of the president to Le Parisien.
- In his quest for “a consensual man or woman who pleases both the left and the right”, as indicated in Le Monde last week, two names seem to emerge as the head of state returned to the Var, after a Parisian interlude for the Olympic Games.
- First, the president of the Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand, with whom the president exchanges via “emissaries” according to Le Parisien. His name has been circulating for several days and is supported by several Republicans and Macronists. On the other side, the former Prime Minister of François Hollande, Bernard Cazeneuve, who exchanges directly with the head of state according to the daily.
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10:15 – Bernard Cazeneuve, direct exchanges with Emmanuel Macron
The President of the Republic is consulting at least on a second name for the post of Prime Minister, it is Bernard Cazeneuve. The former tenant of Matignon under François Hollande remains however much less publicized than Xavier Bertrand, and much more discreet about his new political aspirations. However, according to information from Le Parisien, the latter recently spoke with the head of state “whom he had already seen discreetly at the Elysée in the spring (well before the dissolution). A profile that could quite satisfy the consensual dimension sought by Emmanuel Macron to replace Gabriel Attal.
10:02 – The Xavier Bertrand option, increasingly credible
He is in some way the designated candidate for the post of Prime Minister. The LR president of the Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand is even supported by several figures from the centre and the right. “He is a great republican among the Republicans and a great regional president” declared on this subject Sabrina Agresti-Roubache, resigning Secretary of State for the City, on July 30th. The resigning Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin spoke of “a politician with very great competence”, he could “greatly serve France”, a day earlier.
Concerning the main person concerned, there is no direct contact with the President of the Republic. Bertrand and Macron do exchange, certainly, but through “emissaries” according to information from Le Parisien. A strategist from the Élysée confided to the daily that the new Prime Minister will have to be a personality “charged with going into the wall”. In other words, previous disagreements with the president might not be prohibitive, or even become an advantage concerning the tenacity of the potential appointee. A boost for the candidacy of Xavier Bertrand, in clear disagreement with the policy pursued by Emmanuel Macron in recent years. According to the Élysée, this personality will also have to give off “a scent of cohabitation” as indicated last week. Another good point for the LR.
09:47 – New Prime Minister appointed “faster” than expected?
The name of the future Prime Minister could soon be known. If the name of Gabriel Attal’s replacement was starting to take on the appearance of an open secret, the President of the Republic could speed up on this matter. According to information from Le Parisien, Emmanuel Macron could designate the name of the new occupant of Matignon between the end of the Olympic Games, on August 11 and August 15. A second source tells the daily that it will be “around August 15”, “without excluding that it could go faster”. Why not just after the Council of Ministers on August 12?
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How soon will the new government be appointed?
Emmanuel Macron called for a “political truce” for the duration of the Olympic Games, while Gabriel Attal’s government resigned on July 16. The President of the Republic estimated that no new government would be appointed before “mid-August”, preferring “stability” for the duration of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.
Given the composition of the National Assembly, the President of the Republic has set himself the task of finding a Prime Minister capable of gathering the support of at least 289 deputies, in order to ensure stability. The same applies to the ministers that the latter will then have to propose. Otherwise, the new government as a whole would be exposed to a motion of censure which, if voted for by more than half of the elected representatives, would lead to the overthrow of the ministerial team. It would therefore be necessary to start all over again.
The problem is that Emmanuel Macron will have to accommodate all sensitivities, from the left of course, from the center naturally, but also from the right. If the NFP came out on top, the head of state has already ruled out governing with the LFI deputies. So out goes these sixty elected officials, who could be compensated by the sixty LR who should once again join the Palais Bourbon. Finding personalities who suit the ecologists, socialists, communists, macronists and republicans will not be easy. Not to mention the programmatic points on which everyone will have to agree. The negotiations are still expected to be long and complex. Suffice to say that Gabriel Attal should make extra…
Long and complex negotiations also took place on the left, before the NFP reached an agreement, on Tuesday July 23, just one hour before Emmanuel Macron’s interview on France 2. After several weeks of procrastination, the left-wing parties of the NFP agreed on the name of the senior civil servant, spokesperson for Our Public Services, Lucie Castets, for Matignon.
What could be the profile of the future Prime Minister?
Emmanuel Macron is taking advantage of a summer break from Fort Brégançon to give new clues about the profile of the new Prime Minister. Clear elements are now emerging for the person who will take over from Gabriel Attal. The head of government will have to be “a man or woman, consensual, who pleases both the left and the right”, we can read in the columns of Le Monde. According to the Elysée, this personality will also have to give off “a scent of cohabitation”. This is an important clue about the composition of the new government and its political color. Especially after Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to see the NFP candidate, Lucie Castets, at Matignon. The newspaper Le Monde also reveals that the posture of “the omnipresent”, adopted by Emmanuel Macron could now transform into a “Mitterrandian attitude”.
On Wednesday, July 31, our colleagues at Politico also indicated that another option could catch Emmanuel Macron’s attention, even if Xavier Bertrand’s rating seems higher than ever in the race for Matignon. A minister confided to them that a profile “retired from political life”, “in any case closer to the end than the beginning” of his career could hold the rope. He notably cites former ministers from the Republican right: Michel Barnier or Jean-Louis Borloo.