(Finance) – The European Union works towards strategic autonomy with an eye on the many obstacles it might encounter on the way: the most important international upheaval is, without a shadow of a doubt, the return of Donald Trump in the White House. So much so that according to what emerges from a Financial Times survey conducted on 72 economists, the two biggest threats that the Eurozone economy will have to face in 2025 are a possible global trade war and regional political paralysis.
The president-elect of the USA, the FT recalls, undertook once he returned to the White House on 20 January to impose tariffs until 20% su all imports from the United States, with tariffs that will rise to 60% on China. If Trump keeps his word, the tariffs will represent the most significant increase in US protectionism since the Great Depression and awill increase the possibility of retaliation elsewhere.
Nearly all respondents (81%) said a second Trump term would weigh on Eurozone growth. On average, the 72 respondents expect the Eurozone economy to expand by just 0.9%. From this perspective, it is no coincidence that the majority of economists interviewed (61%) support the appeal made by the president of the ECB Christine Lagarde calls on EU policymakers to start trade negotiations with Trump to avoid an all-out trade war.