Director of the Shin Bet (Israeli domestic intelligence service) between 1996 and 2000, former commander-in-chief of the navy, Labor member of the Knesset (Parliament) between 2006 and 2009, Ami Ayalon is the author of Friendly Fire: How Israel Became Its Own Worst Enemy – Friendly fire: how Israel became its worst enemy – (Steerforth, 2020, not translated). For him, Israel’s “all-military” strategy will not allow it to guarantee its long-term security. Interview.
L’Express: How do you analyze Iranian decision to attack Israel ?
Friend Ayalon: By sending its missiles towards Israel, Tehran has shattered all our certainties. Until now, Iran’s strategy has been to create an axis of violence and instability, intended to take political control of the Middle East. For this, the Iranians rely on armed groups – the Houthi (Yemen) and Hezbollah. To ensure that instability and terror will prevail, Tehran has gone so far as to support a Sunni organization – Hamas. Having these “proxies” allowed them not to engage in a direct military campaign.
But when the Iranians realized that Hezbollah was weakening in Lebanon and that it was increasingly criticized, they changed strategy – hence the attack on October 1st. What will happen now? It is very difficult to predict the Iranian reaction once the IDF [l’armée israélienne] will have retaliated. Some in Israel believe that Tehran could provoke an escalation and target Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Egypt. But no one really knows.
One thing is certain, our intelligence community – despite its major failure to predict attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah – is today capable of hitting any target in Iran, Lebanon, Syria or Iraq, including including the most important Iranian dignitaries. We know how they make decisions, what they eat and who they meet every moment of the day. And the Iranians are perfectly aware of this.
How far can this conflict spread?
The conflict no longer concerns only Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah. It is growing because its impact goes far beyond the regional framework. China has invested enormous money and resources to secure its hydrocarbon imports from Iran. Russia is present in the area, like the United States and Europe, which is already suffering the economic effects of this war, with the Houthi action in the Red Sea. [NDLR : les rebelles pro-iraniens ont mené une centaine d’attaques contre des navires occidentaux depuis onze mois, en solidarité avec le Hamas]. Who knows how this will end…
What is Israel’s long-term strategy? Get rid of the mullahs’ regime?
Being considered in Israel as an opponent of Benjamin Netanyahu, it is difficult for me to speak for him! However, I can tell you that I blame the government for its lack of vision. On October 11, 2023, four days after the massacre perpetrated by Hamas, Benny Gantz [NDLR : le principal opposant à Netanyahou] and Gadi Eisenkot joined the war cabinet set up by the Prime Minister. At the first meeting, it was decided not to think about “afterwards”. Today we see the dramatic impact of this measure. Because if you decide not to discuss the next day, it means that you are not setting a political objective for the military campaign. War becomes an end in itself and not the means to create a better political reality.
In fact, all the objectives that have been set are military objectives and not political objectives. “Destroying the capabilities of Hamas and its leaders” should only be a prerequisite to the question: “Who will replace Hamas?” But that is not the case, because Netanyahu and Gantz [NDLR : qui a démissionné le 9 juin 2024] have completely different approaches. So, for political reasons and to remain in power, Netanyahu is leading a military campaign. This is a major failure because, today, we are at the dawn of a regional war – even though the government had assured that it would do everything to avoid it.
To what extent can Washington influence Netanyahu?
After October 7, it was clear that the Americans would support us in our response to Hamas – because it was justified and we had no other option. Now, they had not imagined the level of violence that would be reached in Gaza. Besides, no one could predict the impact of a military attack in Gaza. We must realize that this is the first time in military history that an enemy has used its population, in such proportions, as a human shield. It must be noted that Hamas attracted Israeli soldiers to the most populated areas of Gaza, by sacrificing the population. And that only terrorists had the right to enter the tunnels.
Now, can the White House influence Netanyahu? Up to a certain limit. What the past year has taught us is that relations between Israel and America are not predictable. From what I understand of our government, it is not listening to advice from Washington. He couldn’t care less.
As for American policy, it is opposed to anything that could lead us to a regional war. It seeks to combine military deterrence and diplomacy, but the fact that the country is in an electoral campaign limits its ability to make decisions. I think the interest of the United States is to create stability in this region, not only to deal with China, but also because increasing instability in the Middle East will impact the very concept of globalization and on the future of the world.
Is the Israeli population ready to take the risk of conflict with Iran?
We measure risks differently when we are in danger. If we think that our future is compromised, that our children are threatened, the acceptance of the risks that we are willing to take is much higher. Today, most Israelis believe we face an existential threat, and it’s called Iran. What is behind Hezbollah? Iran. Behind the Houthi? Iran. The threat is omnipresent. So, yes, the population is ready for it.
Do you think that Israel, emboldened by its recent successes, is giving in to a form of hubris?
It’s a possibility. If you ask me if Israel is safer today than it was a year or two ago, I would say no. Because even though we have all the military capabilities possible, they will not help us create a better future. I was a naval officer during the Yom Kippur War [NDLR : déclenchée le 6 octobre 1973 par l’attaque surprise d’une coalition syro-égyptienne contre Israël]. In less than three weeks, we lost 2,700 soldiers – a real trauma. At that time, we understood that Israel’s security could not rely solely on a powerful army. Speaking a military language was not enough, a diplomatic voice was also needed. But we have forgotten diplomacy.
Today we see the enemy as a target that must be targeted and destroyed. And no one can blame us, after the horror of October 7, 2023. But until we change our way of seeing, this war will not end.
However, let us have no illusions: no solution will come from the Palestinian and Israeli leaders. We are too close to the events. We are suffering. And when we suffer, we are not rational. This is why we need the international community. Only it can help us change our outlook on others.
After all, there was precedent. On November 19, 1977, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat visited Jerusalem, while the two countries were at war. His speech to the Knesset, in which he recognized our right to exist, was broadcast across the country. Immediately, our way of “seeing the enemy” changed. I think international leaders – American and European heads of state, leaders of Arab states – must mobilize to create such moments. On this subject, the comments of Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi on September 27 at the UN are incredible. Disputing the notion that Israel was surrounded by enemies, he said: “We, members of the Arab-Muslim Commission, mandated by 57 Arab and Muslim countries, are all ready to guarantee Israel’s security.” [NDLR : à condition qu’Israël permette l’émergence d’un Etat palestinien]. But these words were not really relayed in Israel. No more than in 2002, the Peace Initiative proposed by the members of the Arab League in Beirut was discussed within our cabinet…
However, this type of event can change the perspective of the Israeli people. Of course, the process will be very long and very painful because of the past, the accumulated hatred. But it is the only way to live together, and it is in the interest of the whole world.
Is the idea of a two-state solution (Israeli and Palestinian) dead?
Of course not! In the history of humanity, ideas never die. The timing is just not right, sometimes not the right one. On the contrary, I think that we have a great opportunity before us. Listen to the voice of the international community: whether in Russia, China, South America, Europe or South Africa, the whole world is convinced that the only way to achieve stability in the Middle East is to create two states. The only ones who don’t accept it today are the Israelis and the Palestinians – at least some of them. The problem is that many in Israel believe that all Palestinians belong to Hamas. And on the other hand, many are convinced that we are all behind Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich [NDLR : les ministres d’extrême droite au pouvoir]. This is not the case. The international community must realize this.
.