After the big announcements of the first days, the negotiations at COP 28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, are getting tough. From the first hours, the UN climate conference surprised by its ability to obtain rapid consensus on burning issues. Operational financing of losses and damages (the irreversible damage of climate change), but also reduction of methane emissions, or tripling of renewable energies… The announcements followed one another at a frantic pace, to the point of arousing almost non-existent hope before the start of the summit.
On Thursday, December 7, the negotiations took a break before beginning, this Friday, the second part of the COP, which is due to end on December 12. Negotiators, ministers, heads of state and NGOs… Everyone can breathe easy, at least in appearance, because it is now a much hotter issue that is under discussion: the future of fossil fuels. An extremely sensitive subject where the interests of producing countries and consumers mingle, and where each statement is closely scrutinized. “Consensus is always difficult to obtain at the COPs, but what is new here is the particularly divisive and central nature of the exit from fossil fuels,” underlines Sébastien Treyer, director of programs at the Development Institute sustainability and international relations.
At issue: the multiple facets of local issues concerning the energy transition, environmental protection, and political contexts. For a long time, the dividing line in discussions remained relatively simple between industrialized countries and emerging countries. But on the place given to gas, the future of oil, or the end of coal, points of view diverge. “The dividing line is not only North-South, but rather between States which have resources (oil, coal, gas), and those which have none,” underlines François Gemenne, political scientist and member of the IPCC.
The complex discourses of producing countries
It is in the text on the “Global Stocktake” that the message from this COP 28 on fossil fuels should focus. An assessment carried out almost 10 years after the Paris agreement, and which must determine the path taken and the efforts to be made to meet the challenge of curbing climate change. It is therefore also on this text that the blocking points are illustrated, and in particular the paragraph relating to energy, which mentioned in a first version the progressive elimination of fossil fuels.
This is evidenced by the words of the representative of Saudi Arabia, who opposes any mention of phasing out, explaining the “trauma” that would be represented by explaining its position on energy. The country is today the leading exporter of crude oil in the world, and intends to ensure a future for its economy. The presence of northern countries, producers of oil and gas, can also complicate declarations. Among them, the United States, Australia, and even Canada, which communicate widely on their actions to fight climate change, but are more reluctant to address the question of the end of fossil fuels. In September, American crude oil production reached a new historic record with a peak at 13.2 million barrels per day, confirming their position as the world’s leading producer, and adding uncertainty to their well-oiled communication around energy. renewable.
“The United States remains the leading oil and gas producing country, but they are also accelerating: however, if they defend an exit from fossil fuels, this can be explained by their desire to develop other sectors of their economy , identified as being much more promising for the economy of tomorrow. But it is probably insufficient”, nuance Sébastien Treyer.
Coal in the crosshairs
The very lucrative oil sector is not the only one to divide. The “coal king” is also widely talked about. And despite French desires to initiate a movement to phase out this energy source – the most polluting – certain countries continue to hinder these ambitions. Thus, India, which accounts for around 8% of global emissions, according to the NGO Global Carbon Project, still remains largely addicted to it and is opposed to any declaration on an exit. This fossil resource represents 73% of its electricity mix, and it is not expected to disappear anytime soon. “Both India and China have important coal-related sectors that provide electricity to the country and their economy, and jobs,” emphasizes Sébastien Treyer. However, both countries also have a very active renewable energy sector, which pleads their case on the international stage. “India is more worried than China about the exit from coal, because it has much less financial firepower to develop its green energies. It is therefore India which carries the message internationally according to which coal is the energy of countries in a situation of economic catch-up, which China can no longer do with the same credibility as in the past”, adds the specialist.
Only one group of countries is actively calling for the phase-out of all fossil fuels. Called the “Coalition for High Ambition”, it includes representatives of small islands threatened by climate change, such as Tuvalu, Samoa, and Barbados; but also countries in the North, such as Austria, Belgium or France, or even countries which have initiated an energy transition showing a credible withdrawal from polluting energies.
These dissensions between the interests of each party cast doubt on the adoption of a robust text on the exit from fossil fuels. But more than a binding declaration, the finalization of an agreement mentioning these fuels would be a first in the history of the COPs. “It would above all be a signal sent to markets and businesses, on the direction that countries must take. This can influence the perception of the future by the fossil industry and begin to initiate its decline”, underlines Lola Vallejo, the director of the IDDRI climate program.
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