– It may very well be where the war is decided in the long term, says Henrik Wachtmeister, researcher in global energy systems at Uppsala University.
The Russian oil industry is under severe pressure. The West has imposed sanctions – something the Russian oil companies are trying to circumvent in various ways. At the same time, Ukraine has launched a drone campaign against the refineries.
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Shall cut the revenue
The purpose of the attacks is partly to strike against Russia’s export earnings, and partly to make it difficult to supply fuel to the Russian military.
By attacking refineries, one can achieve those goals – without significantly raising the global price of oil, according to Henrik Wachtmeister.
– Russia still has the opportunity to export crude oil directly, but it will be less profitable than exporting finished products such as petrol, diesel and jet fuel, he says.
Effect on export figures
The Russian oil export figures point to Ukraine’s strategy having had an effect, according to Wachtmeister.
– We have seen that product exports have decreased by more than 20 percent during the spring, while crude oil exports have increased. There are other factors at play as well, but the fact that these changes are occurring at the same time as refinery capacity is falling suggests that they are related to the attacks.
Russia is repairing
Recently, however, the trend has reversed and product exports have begun to increase.
– It indicates that they managed to repair quickly and got the flow started again. There will be a tug-of-war going forward between the Ukrainian drones and Russia’s ability to repair and protect, says Henrik Wachtmeister.
Can affect the army
If the attacks continue and there is a shortage of diesel and gasoline, the Russian military will likely be affected, Wachtmeister believes.
– But Russia will prioritize its armed forces and around 40 percent of the refinery capacity is beyond the range of the current Ukrainian drones. So even if it becomes more problematic to supply the military, it won’t be a complete mess.