Russia meets about 40 percent of the natural gas needs of Europe such as France, Germany, Poland and Italy.
Western countries are worried that Russia is creating an excuse to cut off gas to Europe via Ukraine.
Aura Sabadus of ICIS said: “There are likely to be several local incidents and an attack on the Ukrainian pipeline is very likely. This will give Russia an opportunity to get rid of its long-term agreements,” he said.
America claims that Russia is planning to stage a plan of attack, which will point to the reason for the invasion of Ukraine. Russia denies it.
Experts suspect that Russia will use its energy supply as a pressure tool to divide Europe.
Experts especially draw attention to the dispute in Europe over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which connects Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea.
The project has been completed but is awaiting approval from Germany and the European Union before it becomes operational.
Debra Cagan, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the US Department of State, thinks that Russia’s strategy is very clear.
“Russia very clearly uses this as a political weapon to threaten Europe, and in particular to countries that could play a role in ratifying Nord Stream 2. So Russia’s aim is to change the European Union’s antitrust rules. Thus, Russia will not only supply the gas, but also own the pipelines. It will also have the authority to control the pipelines and the amount of gas flowing through these pipes.”
America and Europe have warned Moscow about the consequences of Russia’s aggressive policy towards Ukraine, and emphasizes that sanctions to be applied against any military action against Ukraine will also include Nord Stream 2.
“We are having very strong and clear talks with our German allies in connection with Nord Stream 2, and I am telling you openly today that if Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not be able to progress,” said Victoria Nuland, the US Under Secretary of State. .
To assist Europe in the potential gas crisis, the United States discussed with Qatar and other energy producing countries whether they would be able to supply gas to Europe if Russia cuts shipments.
According to the International Energy Agency, America’s exports of liquefied natural gas to Europe increased by 40 percent in the last quarter of 2021 than last year’s combined.
However, experts say it will not replace Russian liquefied natural gas in the short term.
Sabadus said, “In January, European imports of liquefied natural gas reached almost record levels, half of which was from the United States. So a lot of liquefied natural gas goes from America to Europe,” he says.
Debra Cagan says that a problem in Russian natural gas shipments will affect not only Europe but also America.
Cagan says, “America buys 18 million barrels of oil from Russia every month when it says to Europe ‘stop buying natural gas from Russia’.”
European countries, on the other hand, seem determined to continue to seek alternative energy sources in order to reduce their energy dependence on Russia.