“Energy sovereignty tool”, “useful for the ecological transition”… Gas is presented by its promoters as having become essential. All around the planet, gas projects are multiplying, but they are not without environmental and social consequences. In an increasingly competitive and uncertain international context, access to this resource is at the center of often contradictory interests.
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During the global energy crisis between 2021 and 2023, public opinion, particularly in Europe, is becoming aware of the danger hovering over countries heavily dependent on natural gas imports. “ From spring 2021, Russia is playing on the price of gas in the European Union (of which it is then the main supplier), by not filling Gazprom’s storage sites on European soil », recalls Anne-Sophie Corbeau, researcher at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Moscow has restricted its exports to European countries by two thirds.
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“ There wasn’t enough gas to heat the houses », recalls, during an international conference dedicated to liquefied natural gas in Berlin, in December 2024, Stefan Wenzel, Parliamentary State Secretary to the German Minister for the Economy and Climate Protection. Before the war in Ukraine, more than a third of the natural gas consumed in Germany came from Russia. After the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, the Berlin government decided to hastily install a floating terminal to be able to receive LNG deliveries. At the beginning of this year 2025, six other floating terminals will be installed.
The LNG boom creates new competition between buyers
But the boom in liquefied natural gas to circumvent pipeline delivery problems, diversify suppliers and thus reduce possible political pressure in the event of conflict is not without risk either, warns Claire Bordenave. “ Before, market prices were quite localized, since gas did not travel very far through pipelines. Now that gas can be transported in the form of LNG almost anywhere on board ships, competition between buyers is becoming global », underlines this associated expert of the French association The Shift Project. “ Who says transport of LNG by boat, says risk of diversion of cargo to the highest bidder. It is no longer at all as predictable as gas pipeline delivery contracts were. In the global gas market, Europe, for example, is a very small player compared to Asia. We are not only talking about China, but also South Korea and Japan, as well as new consumers, such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. These countries are currently experiencing a very sharp increase in their gas imports. They are also building LNG terminals with Western aid. So, we are helping our competitors on upcoming contracts with LNG producing countries. If demand is strong, Europe will have to pay more for what Asia offers, to ensure that LNG deliveries from the United States or Qatar reach it and do not go to Asia. With this new competition between buyers, gas prices are less regionalized, less partitioned between consuming regions than before. “.
LNG transport subject to geopolitical and climatic hazards
Furthermore, in an international context marked by numerous conflicts, LNG transport on board LNG carriers is subject to geopolitical uncertainties. In spring 2024, the gas industry was worried, for example, about a closure of the Strait of Hormuz against a backdrop of heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. It is through this strategic lock of the Persian Gulf that LNG deliveries from Qatar and Saudi Arabia pass, representing 20% of global liquefied natural gas production.
Climatic uncertainties also increasingly affect LNG tanker routes. A historic drought led to drastic restrictions on circulation in the Panama Canal in 2023, considerably lengthening the journeys of ships loaded with LNG.
According to Claire Bordenave, who worked for 35 years in the gas sector, the increase in demand for natural gas globally will increase the risk of possible conflicts between producing countries: among the hot spots, “ the Arctic zone with its enormous natural gas reserves and which borders countries which have no land border and for which agreements should be found to share the deposits “. The Arctic is in fact home to 30% of the world’s natural gas reserves. And with climate change and melting ice, these are becoming accessible.
Towards the decline of gas
Getting out of natural gas will therefore not only be imperative to combat global warming, but also to limit the submission of importing countries to geopolitical hazards. But how to organize this outing? “ Managing the decline of an energy is extremely complicated, socially, of course, but also strategically and geopolitically », notes Claire Bordenave.« For companies in the sector, it is not very motivating to manage this decline, contrary to their social purpose which is not planned suicide “.
For Anne-Sophie Corbeau, if the gas outlet is also imperative, “ In the medium term, at least until 2030, it is better to keep gas power plants to be sure not to withdraw them from the market too quickly. Because we clearly see that there are episodes where we do not have enough renewable electricity. The evolution of technologies to allow different flexibilities will arrive gradually. But we must avoid putting the cart before the horse or else we will find ourselves faced with power cuts. “. Until then, believes the researcher, we must try by all means to reduce our methane emissions, in particular by strengthening the use of satellites capable of detecting these leaks and holding emitters responsible.
The best option: sobriety
To begin the exit of natural gas, there is “ a major lever yet too often forgotten », underlines Sami Ramdani researcher at IRIS: “ energy sobriety. In addition to being an essential solution for the energy transition, energy sobriety is also an important geopolitical tool from the point of view of consumers. For Europeans, for example, energy sobriety would remove geopolitical pressure from the great powers around us: from Russia, of course, a dependence for which we paid the price with the invasion of Ukraine. But also in the face of our major supplier, the United States, which will surely be able to use its LNG exports as a geopolitical argument at the appropriate time. This energy sobriety is used everywhere », continues Sami Ramdani: “ in industries, since they are the main consumers. And it is therefore in this sector that levers should be activated from a regulatory point of view. But also in everyday life. Remember the massive awareness campaigns in the context of the war in Ukraine which encouraged everyone to pay attention to their energy consumption. We must continue in this direction ».