What is crucial in Sweden’s NATO membership is whether the Social Democrats turn to support NATO. Ewa Stenberg, a political journalist at Dagens Nyheter, believes that Sanna Marin and the Finnish Social Democrats can best influence the position.
STOCKHOLM Sweden’s NATO debate has stalled, just like the spring this year in Stockholm.
The debate has stood on the basic question of which is safer for Sweden: to stay outside NATO or to join.
The focus is on the Social Democrats. Their position will be crucial, especially if Sweden applies for NATO membership by the end of June.
The Social Democrats currently form the government alone.
We have summarized the main points of the current debate in this story.
1) Statements by the Social Democrats
In Sweden, the statements of the Social Democrats are being followed through a magnifying glass.
– The position of the Social Democrats is turning around, but there is still a mystery when and in what direction, says Dagens Nyheter’s political journalist Ewa Stenberg Ylelle.
The President, the Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said in late March that he did not rule out NATO membership.
Until then, he had reiterated the party’s position that Sweden was not applying for NATO membership.
– He also said that non-alignment has served (move to another service) Sweden well. He no longer said that non-alignment still serves us well, that is, he did not use the present tense, Stenberg points out.
In addition to Andersson, the most important names in forming the position are the Foreign Minister Ann LindeMinister of the Interior Mikael Damberg and the Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist.
Both Hultqvist and Damberg are descendants of Finnish war children. This experience is greatly appreciated in Sweden.
Stenberg estimates that the Prime Minister of Finland is most listened to among the Swedish Social Democrats.
– About me Sanna Marinilla are best placed to influence their position. This is because the Finnish and Swedish Social Democrats are in the same situation as regards membership. The Social Democrats in the other Nordic countries and Germany are completely satisfied with NATO.
2) Which solution brings the most security?
The key issue concerns Sweden’s long line of security policy.
“The Social Democrats in particular have traditionally thought that joining NATO is a greater risk than a threat to Russia,” says Swedish radio policy reporter Tomas Ramberg in an interview.
There have been fears that Sweden will be drawn into conflicts that can be avoided outside NATO.
However, the war in Ukraine has changed attitudes.
– It has been awakened that Russia is close and is acting in a way that is dangerous for us as well. Now this information is being digested and evaluated.
Ewa Stenberg recalls that non-alignment means decades of disarmament work for the party, Olof Palmen heritage and role as a peace mediator.
– For this reason, I do not think it is obvious what the Social Democrats will end up with. The matter is so significant, he says.
The Alliance of Democratic Countries, which has emerged to support Ukraine, is uncertain about NATO’s membership.
Many of these countries belong to NATO.
On the other hand, hesitation is compounded by Russia’s threatened backlash against membership applications.
Prime Minister Andersson said in the early weeks of Russia’s war of aggression that Sweden’s NATO membership would destabilize Europe’s security situation.
– It may be that he had intelligence behind his statement. However, this comment has led many of those who are considering NATO to think twice, Stenberg says.
3) Following Finland’s solution
Finland is a key part of Sweden’s NATO debate.
The articles, columns and discussion programs almost invariably address the question: If Finland joins NATO, should Sweden follow Finland.
According to the latest opinion polls, less than half of Swedes support NATO membership.
In Sweden, it is widely believed that Sweden will follow Finland’s solution.
– It is a logical solution to the close co-operation that Sweden has established in recent years with Finland, the United States and NATO countries, says Ramberg.
He believes this is the rationale that the country’s social democrats will use.
Political journalist Stenberg believes that defense co-operation between Finland and Sweden is one of the strongest arguments.
– If Finland joined NATO and Sweden were excluded, this co-operation would change completely. Looking at the map, it is clear that regional cooperation is important in defense plans.
4) Timetable for submitting the application
The different issue is whether Sweden will have time if Finland decides to submit an application by the end of June.
Parliamentary elections will be held in Sweden in early September.
The challenge is to have a wide-ranging debate on security policy. The Swedish security policy report will be completed during May.
– Now it looks like June is coming to Sweden too early, Ramberg thinks.
However, rapid monitoring of Finland’s solution can be critical to the security situation.
– There has been a lot of talk about the risks involved when a membership application is submitted. If Sweden continues to have a wide-ranging debate, it could increase the threat to Finland’s security, says Stenberg.
According to Stenberg, this may be an argument that will speed up Sweden’s decision, even if the democratic debate is shortened.
You can discuss the subject until Tuesday, April 12, 2022 at 11 p.m.
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