It is a symbolic course. It was crossed on Saturday July 8, on the 500th day of the war launched by Russia in Ukraine. On this occasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky celebrated the “courage” of his people, while kyiv is engaged in a counter-offensive against Moscow.
This is also the moment chosen by Washington to commit itself to kyiv, Friday, July 7, to deliver cluster bombs, a very controversial weapon. The sensitive subject will surely be discussed at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, organized on Tuesday July 11 and Wednesday July 12, and which will be attended by many personalities, from Emmanuel Macron to Joe Biden. During these two days, Westerners must offer “security guarantees” to Ukraine.
The question of Ukraine’s membership
Eastern European countries then Turkey… Volodymyr Zelensky’s tour the latter was intended to gather support before the NATO summit in Vilnius. But Ukraine, which was hoping for accelerated membership of the Atlantic Alliance, saw its hopes dashed by Joe Biden. The American president affirmed that kyiv will not benefit from “special treatment”.
The White House has been clear: Ukraine “will not join NATO” after the Vilnius summit, supported Jake Sullivan, White House security adviser. kyiv “still has many steps to take before it can become a member” of the Atlantic Alliance, he said.
This question will be at the center of the summit in the Lithuanian capital, where the leaders of NATO should however reaffirm their intention to eventually integrate Ukraine into the Alliance. kyiv had requested its accelerated integration in 2022, seven months after the launch of the Russian invasion on its territory.
The formulation of this commitment has been the subject of intense negotiations for months between the 31 members. “I expect our leaders to reaffirm that Ukraine will become a member of NATO and that they will unite on how to bring Ukraine closer to its goal,” said Jens Stoltenberg from Brussels on Friday.
The secretary general of the Alliance did not want to advance on the exact terms of this message which will be sent to kyiv. “We are in the process of consulting and working on the exact wording (which) will be made public when we have agreed,” he cautiously commented. “But I am confident that we will have a clear message,” added the Norwegian, renewed on July 4 at the head of this military alliance until October 2024.
The United States and Germany, worried that such a decision would bring the Alliance closer to a war with Russia, are reluctant to give a clear prospect of membership to Ukraine, unlike the Eastern Europeans and to France. Ukraine “deserves to join NATO”, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday after a meeting in Istanbul with his Ukrainian counterpart.
“We need a very clear and intelligible signal that Ukraine can become a full member of NATO after the war,” said the Ukrainian president recently. Before its invasion of Ukraine, Russia had for its part issued a red line on the integration of its neighbor into the alliance, a gesture which the Kremlin considers a threat to its sovereignty.
In Vilnius will also be held the first meeting of the new NATO-Ukraine council, intended to strengthen ties with kyiv. This meeting should take place in the presence of Volodymyr Zelensky. The 31 members of NATO have also pledged to devote 500 million euros to a multi-year program intended to bring kyiv closer to the standards of the Alliance.
Joe Biden’s balancing act
In Vilnius, Joe Biden will have to juggle between two complex missions: on the one hand, to strengthen support for kyiv from the allies; on the other, to maintain this position of firmness on the Ukrainian ambition to quickly join the Alliance. This summit must make it possible to “demonstrate our unity and determination to support Ukraine” indicated Jake Sullivan on Friday. Joe Biden will give a speech on “his vision of a strong and confident America, surrounded by strong and confident partners and allies”, added the White House security adviser.
The American president will begin his trip with a short visit to his British ally on Monday, July 10, before arriving in Lithuania at the end of the day. He will conclude his trip by going to Finland on Thursday July 13, the last country to have joined NATO in April 2023. Finland, which has become the 31st member of this military alliance, will take part for the first time in a NATO summit. Alliance.
What about Sweden’s membership?
During his trip to Europe, Joe Biden will also work to convince Turkey to lift its veto on Sweden’s membership. The White House said it expected Sweden to join NATO “in the near future”. Jake Sullivan said it was “possible” for Turkey and Hungary, which are currently blocking Stockholm’s membership, to change their position at the summit.
The differences concern Sweden’s attitude towards Kurdish opposition movements, such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), blacklisted by Ankara, which considers them to be “terrorist” groups.
Jake Sullivan clarified that even if the blockage was not lifted in Vilnius, Washington believed “that it will happen in the near future”. A meeting is scheduled for Monday, on the eve of the summit, between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, to try to resolve the situation. During a press briefing after his meeting with Joe Biden on Wednesday July 5, the Swedish Prime Minister indicated that the two leaders saw the summit in Vilnius as “a very appropriate moment for Sweden to join”. “But only Turkey can make Turkish decisions,” he said.
New arms deliveries?
Ukraine also hopes to receive new promises of arms and ammunition deliveries as part of its counter-offensive on the front, which has so far come up against strong Russian defensive lines. Despite the celebration of NATO unity, Joe Biden should remain on restraint. The challenge is not to send weapons which could lead to an escalation of the conflict on the Russian side which could lead to a “Third World War”, warned the American president on numerous occasions.
However, Joe Biden has often gone back on his initial refusal, softening his position so far as to send American Patriot air defense systems or to authorize his allies to send their own arsenal. Friday, the American president thus authorized the delivery of cluster munitions to Ukraine, claimed by kyiv for a long time, but prohibited from use or production in many countries. “It was a very difficult decision for me,” he said in an interview with CNNjustifying his decision by the fact that “the Ukrainians are out of ammunition”.
For Jens Stoltenberg, the “most urgent task” is to “support Ukraine as long as necessary”. “That’s why the allies are stepping up their military aid,” he added. NATO countries must reinforce their defense spending target at the summit, by setting a minimum of 2% of GDP. They made a commitment ten years ago to strive towards this objective. “Only three allies then devoted 2% of their GDP to defence. This year, 11 allies have reached or exceeded this objective”, welcomed Jens Stoltenberg.