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The NATO symbol in the form of a compass in front of the headquarters in Brussels. Stock Photography.
1 of 2Photo: Virginia Mayo / AP / TT
NATO is an organization in constant change. Sweden enters a situation where the alliance has undergone three phases. Now it may be time for NATO 4.0.
– It is a new NATO after February 24, says Ann-Sofie Dahl, associate professor of international politics.
The NATO flag consists of a white compass against a blue background. The blue color symbolizes the Atlantic and the ring that encloses the compass stands for unity.
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, describes the Defense Alliance as the most successful in history for two reasons:
The organization has succeeded in uniting Europe with North America and NATO has changed as the world has changed.
At the NATO summit in Madrid in June, it is time for the Alliance’s next step in the process of change. An important part of it is NATO’s so-called strategic concepts.
The concept can best be described as the organization’s key document that points the direction for the next ten years.
“Outdated”
In Madrid, the member states will adopt the eighth strategic concept since its founding in 1949. Over the years, the document has been kept secret, but after the end of the Cold War they became public. The current strategic concept was adopted in Lisbon in 2010.
– Because it is so long since last and the old is so outdated and outdated, this will be of great importance. It will mark a new NATO after the outbreak of war on February 24, says Ann-Sofie Dahl, associate professor of international politics and active at the think tank Atlantic Council (ACUS).
The emphasis will be on what was emphasized when the alliance was founded: collective security and NATO’s Article 5 on defending each other in a war or crisis situation.
– It will be back to the old, back to basics, says Dahl.
The different phases of NATO
Over the decades, NATO has undergone three different phases, according to former Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. What he calls NATO 1.0 was valid from 1950 to 1991 and was strongly influenced by the actions of the Soviet Union and the Cold War.
NATO 2.0 lasted from 1991 until the 50th anniversary in 1999. The security of the member states remained the alliance’s most important task, but at the same time the importance of increasing and improving security in Europe was emphasized. The number of nuclear weapons would be reduced to maintain peace and stability.
According to the former Danish Prime Minister, NATO’s current document symbolizes 3.0, with a focus on collective defense, security and partnership. Deterrence in the form of both nuclear weapons and conventional weapons is at the heart of NATO’s overall strategy.
About Russia, the concept states that cooperation between NATO and Russia is of “strategic importance” because it contributes to stability and security.
When Finland and Sweden now apply for membership, the attitude towards Russia will be completely different, states an official NATO source for TT.
– It will be much more realistic, unlike in 2010 when the assessment was that we were in a predictable and stable European security environment.
– The text was of course a product of the security climate that prevailed in Europe then. To some extent, it reflected an aspiration and a constructive approach, a welcome one, but in 2022 it would be very difficult for any of our allies to say the same thing, in short. I think there is a desire to acknowledge that our relationship has deteriorated due to Russia’s behavior.
Nuclear Weapons Alliance
NATO’s nuclear doctrine is defined in the strategic concept.
It is stated here that the circumstances for when nuclear weapons could become relevant to be used are “extremely remote”.
The new strategic concept is expected to repeat that as long as there are nuclear weapons, NATO will be a nuclear alliance. The NPT, the Non-Proliferation Treaty for nuclear weapons, is also likely to be mentioned again.
The section is not expected to undergo any “radical change”, but rather an “adaptation and modernization”. Exactly what this means can not be said because the member states are in negotiations on this right now, according to the source.
– Nuclear deterrence will be a key component of our stance.
Four battle groups
The Defense Alliance is also expected to strengthen its permanent presence of troops in the eastern parts of the alliance. The so-called “stumbling block” consisting of multinational battle groups in the Baltic states has since the outbreak of war increased by another 40,000 men.
– The entire strengthening of the eastern flank, from the Baltics down to Romania, will of course be felt. It is very important, says Ann-Sofie Dahl.
She emphasizes that NATO’s focus in the coming years will be on Sweden’s immediate area.
– Our membership also strengthens the image that the Nordic-Baltic region is strategically central.
China was not mentioned in a word in the Lisbon document, but now China is expected to be an important part of how NATO views the changing global balance of power, especially given the country’s relationship with Russia.
– NATO is an organization that is constantly changing, and those who do not understand it think that it is the same old Cold War organization as it was before, says Ann-Sofie Dahl.
Facts
Different versions of NATO
According to former Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO has consisted of three versions.
The first four classified strategic concepts were influenced by, among other things, North Korea’s invasion of South Korea in the 1950s, the conflict between Greece and Turkey, the actions of the Soviet Union and the Cold War. They were valid from 1950 until 1991.
In a keynote speech at the Lisbon Summit twelve years ago, Fogh Rasmussen called this NATO 1.0.
After 1991, the strategic concepts became public documents. The security of the member states continued to be the alliance’s most important task, but at the same time the importance of increasing and improving security in Europe was emphasized. The number of nuclear weapons would be reduced to maintain peace and stability.
When the Defense Alliance turned 50 in 1999, the sixth strategic concept was adopted, which was strongly influenced by experience from the operations in the Balkans. This post Cold War-NATO was described as NATO 2.0.
According to the former Danish Prime Minister, NATO 3.0 came into being when the current and seventh strategic concept was adopted. But a shift in focus against counter-terrorism could already be seen after the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001.
Read moreFacts
The strategic concept in brief
In Madrid, NATO will adopt its eighth strategic concept.
The current document from 2010 contains, among other things:
NATO’s fundamental principles on the political and military ties between Europe and North America.
Collective defense, crisis management and common security. Weapons control, non-proliferation and disarmament.
NATO’s open door ‘policy of keeping open to new members in the form of all European democracies that meet NATO’s requirements.
The proliferation of nuclear weapons is seen as a threat to stability and prosperity. However, as long as nuclear weapons exist, NATO will be a nuclear alliance.
The circumstances in which the use of nuclear weapons could be actualized are described as “extremely remote”.
NATO’s deterrent effect is a mix of nuclear and conventional weapons. The main security guarantee for the member states is in particular the US nuclear weapons, while the British and French nuclear weapons also have a deterrent effect.
Terrorism, cyber attacks, threats to energy flows, climate change are some of the topics that the concept touches on.
Member States’ defense budgets must be sufficient.
The exchange of intelligence will increase between member states.
Partnerships with other countries, organizations and institutions will be expanded. Cooperation with Russia is of strategic importance and contributes to peace, stability and security. Relations with countries around the Mediterranean will be expanded. Partnerships with Ukraine and Georgia will be developed. The relationship with the Gulf states will be deepened. And countries in the Western Balkans will be more integrated.
Source: NATO’s strategic concept, from November 2010.
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