A much-awaited regional election takes place on Sunday (May 15) in Germany in the country’s largest region, North Rhine-Westphalia, whose capital is Düsseldorf. Beyond local issues, the election has a major national impact, eight months after the last general election.
From our correspondent in Berlin,
With 18 million inhabitants, almost a quarter of the German population lives in North Rhine-Westphalia: many countries have fewer inhabitants. The Land, which is home to many large companies and whose largest city is Cologne, has an economic weight internationally. Regarding a regional election in this Land, we often speak of ” mini-general election », that says it all.
This spring, we also voted in two other much more modest regions, such as Saarland – one million inhabitants – or Schleswig-Holstein, in the North, Sunday May 8 – three million inhabitants.
North Rhine-Westphalia was ruled after the war by the Christian Democrats of the CDU before becoming, for forty years, a social democratic stronghold. For twenty years, the alternations have been regular.
An election in this region can cause upheavals in Berlin. In 2005, at the end of the era of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, the defeat of the SPD in this stronghold led to early national elections. Without the conquest of this Land in 2017, the Christian Democrat Armin Laschet would not have been his party’s candidate for chancellor in 2021.
From regional elections to national issues for the SPD
After its success in the general elections last September, the Social Democrats of the SPD broke a spiral of poor results and even spoke of ” a social democratic decade “. In March, the party obtained an absolute majority in Saarland and reconquered this region before recording a historic defeat on Sunday May 8 in Schleswig-Holstein.
A victory on Sunday 15 would put balm in the heart of the party: it is neck and neck with the CDU and hopes to be able to return to the region with the Greens and, if necessary, the Liberals as in Berlin. The head of the list appeared with Olaf Scholz hoping to benefit from the Chancellor’s greater notoriety. But the popularity of the latter is in sharp decline.
Such a victory would also strengthen the head of government. Its green allies should be the big winners on Sunday: they are sure to be the kingmakers, either with the Social Democrats or alongside the outgoing Minister-President, the Christian Democrat Henrik Wüst. The environmentalists take advantage of the popularity of their foreign ministers and the Economy, which would explain their rise in the polls.
The Liberals, the smallest partner in the national coalition, do not benefit from their participation in the government in Berlin. Their score should be noticeably lower on Sunday and could deepen their frustrations a little more.
A question of survival for the CDU still at the head of the region
For the Christian Democrats, in opposition to Berlin, these elections are an opportunity to keep a region while the new Minister-President Henrik Wüst has only been in charge since last autumn – which constitutes a handicap. He governs with the Liberals and this option will probably not have a majority on Sunday evening.
In the event of victory, the CDU should govern with the Greens and if necessary the liberals, in a country where many constellations are possible. If the Christian Democrats keep the region, the defending champion will gain national importance thanks to the anointing of the ballot boxes.
The CDU, after an excellent score on Sunday May 8 in Schleswig-Holstein, could regain color after a historic failure last September. And the new party chairman, Friedrich Merz, would see his position as leader of the opposition against Chancellor Scholz strengthened.
But if the CDU loses, this defeat will also be that of its president, also from North Rhine-Westphalia.
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