The ceiling bends but does not break. The National Rally was nevertheless certain of it: after fifty-two years of existence, including a good fifty on the margins of political life, it had finally succeeded in cutting this damned cordon sanitaire. Its future seemed all mapped out: having come out on top in the European elections with more than 30% of the vote, the far-right party had transformed the test, on June 30, by coming first in more than 90% of the constituencies. On the morning of July 1, Jordan Bardella was serene. He adjusted his suit and was already planning for Matignon. The results map was almost entirely navy blue, the entire political class was alerting to the possibility that Marine Le Pen’s party would come to power, which was more likely than ever. Even part of the right, led by Eric Ciotti, had decided to cross the Rubicon, breaking the taboo of alliance. The National Rally was walking on water.
And, in the first days of the campaign, nothing seems to have any effect on its electoral momentum. Neither the programmatic approximations of Jordan Bardella, nor the successive counter-attacks of the Le Pen representatives. But in the last days, the varnish is cracking. The polished window of the party with the flame is tainted by successive revelations about the profiles of its candidates. Conspiracy, racism, anti-Semitism, incompetence. Here again are the historical flaws of the RN revealed in broad daylight. And with them, the sudden resurrection of the Republican barrier, and the withdrawals, in cascade, of the candidates of the right, the left and the center in the three-way races.
Tradition dies hard, and the cordon sanitaire, although worn to the bone, resists. Result: the RN takes the slide, and goes from a possible absolute majority to third place on the evening of the second round, behind the alliance of the left and that of the central bloc. And here is Jordan Bardella again forced to don the costume of the marginalized opponent and to denounce an “alliance of dishonor”, he who a few days earlier dreamed of cohabitation. On the morning of July 8, the RN’s results are revised downwards: 126 deputies, elected under the sole RN label, and 17 elected under the dual LR-RN label. A total, therefore, of 143 elected. This is still 54 more than two years ago, at the time of the 2022 legislative elections. This is much less than what the Le Penists were hoping for on the evening of the first round. It is proof, above all, that the glass ceiling still holds.