Emmanuel Macron is highly anticipated regarding the appointment of a new Prime Minister. While he is in the middle of a consultation to move forward with his choice, several personalities are still in the pipeline.
While Emmanuel Macron is multiplying consultations, no name has yet been given for the new tenant of Matignon. The head of state keeps repeating that “no one has won” the legislative elections and that it is therefore necessary to form a coalition. A very difficult condition to put in place. In the meantime, the resigning government led by Gabriel Attal continues to manage current affairs.
However, time is running out and the French are growing impatient. The president could then make a decision in the coming days, even if the fear that he will wait until the end of the Paralympic Games persists. The consultations could, in fact, last. However, several names are circulating for the post of Prime Minister, even if Emmanuel Macron could well pull a surprise out of the hat, or even a very little-known profile.
Lucie Castets or nothing for the left
The left wants Lucie Castets at Matignon. The different parties that form this alliance went “together” to the meeting with Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée on Friday, August 23, accompanied by their candidate for Matignon. Her name had quickly been swept aside by Emmanuel Macron, who has never hidden his rejection of the possibility of seeing rebels in government. But the situation could have changed since the recent statements of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. He now seems to want to carry the NFP program, even if it means giving up the presence of members of his party in government. At 1 p.m. on TF1Saturday August 24, he asked: “the government of Lucie Castets, if it did not include any “insoumis” ministers, would you commit to not voting for censure and to allowing it to implement the program for which we came out on top in the legislative elections? If you tell us no, we will say that the “insoumis” ministers, in fact, are a pretext, it is the program that you do not want.”
A turnaround that could pave the way for a left-wing government without the Insoumis, which is to Olivier Faure’s taste. He congratulated this initiative on X: “the pretext of the presence of a FI minister no longer exists. We are now waiting for the response of all those who thought they had found a way to reject the NFP en bloc”. The left has been waiting for Emmanuel Macron’s response since then. However, the RN has stated, through Jordan Bardella, that it would not hesitate to file a motion of censure in the event of an NFP government. The same goes for Eric Ciotti, president of the À droite! group in the National Assembly and even for Laurent Marcangeli, president of the Horizons group in the National Assembly.
Names still being mentioned for Matignon
- Xavier Bertrandthe president of the Hauts-de-France region (LR). Supported by several figures from the centre and the right, the main person concerned said he was “ready to take up the challenge” on Tuesday 6 August in the columns of Le Figaro. However, the candidacy was very poorly received on the left, which believes that only the NFP is legitimate to govern and that the LR group only has 47 deputies. Xavier Bertrand is appreciated by Gérald Darmanin, but has “horrendous” relations with Emmanuel Macron according to the daily, an obvious obstacle to a possible nomination.
- Bernard Cazeneuvethe former Prime Minister of François Hollande (PS). The former head of government is less publicized than Xavier Bertrand, but has solid ministerial experience that could allow him to make a difference with Emmanuel Macron. Above all, he comes from the left but still speaks to a part of the right. Bernard Cazeneuve is not unanimous within the NFP, however, he opposed the union of the left during the legislative elections.
- Karim Bouamranethe mayor of Saint-Ouen in Seine-Saint-Denis (PS). The name of the elected official was also put forward after the Olympic Games and would appear on a list studied by Emmanuel Macron according to The World And The Opinion. Coming from the left, a communist then socialist activist, he presents a particular profile likely to seduce the presidential camp. In a portrait of the FigaroKarim Bouamrane defends “left-wing values” such as “progress, solidarity, fraternity, sorority” and deplores “the abandonment” by his camp of “security”. A “political error” according to the elected official who is critical of LFI. But Karim Bouamrane assured that he had no “personal ambition” and indicated that he supported Lucie Castets. He added, however, that if the position was offered to him, he would turn to his political family before answering. The door is therefore not definitively closed.
- Valerie Pecressethe president of the Île-de-France region (LR). Her name has been circulating since the end of the Olympic Games after a rapprochement with the head of state that led to the belief in a possible coalition. But nothing is less certain. According to Le Figaro, while some believe that her right-wing profile could have every “chance”, others on the contrary do not believe it at all and assure that she is not very appreciated by the presidential camp. Valérie Pécresse is not helped by her score in the 2022 presidential election which was one of the lowest in the history of the right: 4.78% of the vote
A coalition prime minister?
The left being the majority group in the National Assembly, it could shelter the future Prime Minister, but if a coalition were to emerge and become the largest group in terms of the number of elected representatives, it would become a breeding ground for potential heads of government. And a coalition would have the advantage of strengthening the Prime Minister by making his ouster by a motion of censure more difficult, but still possible as long as 289 deputies are not united in the alliance. Several coalition scenarios were then on the table.
► A coalition between the New Popular Front and Ensemble
The presidential camp or its left wing could move closer to the left on condition that LFI, which is part of the New Popular Front, is excluded from the coalition. This is the path that has just opened with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s statements on a government without rebellious ministers.
► A coalition between Ensemble and Les Républicains?
The presidential camp, at the head of the Ensemble coalition, has 168 deputies while the right has 60. The two united groups would therefore have nearly 230 deputies and would become the majority. The two political parties have already agreed on several projects since the re-election of Emmanuel Macron in 2022 and have made it possible to pass laws despite the relative majority of the presidential camp. However, this possibility now seems to have been ruled out. Laurent Wauquiez, president of the La Droite républicaine group in the National Assembly, reaffirmed on August 23 that Les Républicains “will not participate in any government coalition”.
► A coalition ranging from the social-democratic left to the republican right
This is a scenario that the presidential camp and Emmanuel Macron called for in a letter addressed to the French people on July 10, but which seems difficult to envisage given the programmatic differences between the left and the right despite points of agreement.
The hypothesis of a technical Prime Minister is fading
Without a majority and without a government agreement, another solution is to build a technical government led by a Prime Minister with little political influence and who can achieve consensus from the left to the right. The ministers would then be senior civil servants, economists, diplomats and specialists in each field, more than politicians. They would be responsible for running the country and its economy without introducing major new measures or reforms while waiting for new legislative elections. Names like Dominique de Villepin Or Charles de Courson are good examples.
There is also the possibility of an apolitical personality. At the end of July, our colleagues at Politico indicated that another option could attract Emmanuel Macron’s attention. A minister confided to them that a profile “retired from political life”, “in any case closer to the end than the beginning” of his career could hold the rope. He cited in particular former ministers from the Republican right: Michel Barnier Or Jean-Louis BorlooHowever, this last hypothesis of a technical Prime Minister is less and less mentioned.