Earlier this week, Ravil Maganov, chairman of the board of the oil giant Lukoil, was found dead. He had then fallen from a window on the sixth floor of a hospital in Moscow where he was being treated.
Maganov’s is the latest in a series of deaths in 2022 of wealthy, powerful Russians. Earlier in the year, at least three executives at the energy company Gazprom and its subsidiaries were either murdered or found dead. Several examples can be found both at a high level within the state administration and in other parts of Russian business life. The deceased persons have, among other things, been found shot to death or with suicide notes.
Hugo von Essen is an analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the Institute for Foreign Policy. He has two hypotheses for the deaths.
— It is of course speculative, but this above all indicates that there are internal power plays going on in the political and economic system Putin has built. It is clear who is in charge – Putin – but under him there is a lot of room to maneuver for more power.
“These deaths could be part of that power game, where people within different groups take the chance to gain more influence,” says Hugo von Essen.
Changed power base
Hugo von Essen describes the situation as a “slash six” where oligarchs and influential people fight for more power. At the same time, he points out that the deaths can also be a way of consolidating Putin’s power.
— An alternative theory is that the deaths are not solely the result of internal conflicts, but rather that they are orchestrated by Putin in order to redirect the power base under him. It may be about people who have made themselves unnecessary or who have not acted in the way that top management wants them to.
TT: Can you really be sure that all deaths are murders?
– You can’t be completely sure, and in some cases it could of course be about completely different causes of death, but it is suspicious that so many people were affected this year and that several of the deaths looked like murder.
Increased competition within the elite
According to Hugo von Essen, the Western countries’ sanctions have caused wealthy exiled Russians to return to the country. In combination with the tight economy, competition has increased within the country’s political and economic elite.
— Putin’s type of governance is very much about delegating power downwards. He is focused on larger issues and on foreign policy. This results in actors at lower levels fighting to get closer to Putin, says Hugo von Essen.
“Regardless of the cause of the deaths, they indicate that the system is unstable, that it is faltering and that it is risky for its players. It does not bode well for the system itself, and especially not for Putin, who built it. His power rests on the maintenance of the system.