The military intelligence services in Europe have one by one released their predictions during the winter. One of them is Denmark that warns that Russia may be ready to be ready for war against one or more NATO countries in the Baltic Sea region within two years after a ceasefire.
In Sweden, the head of Must is now going out and says that the Swedish assessment is that it is “a few years” before Russia would venture to challenge NATO in Europe.
– I would say that our assessment is that then we talk about a few years, says Thomas Nilsson, manager at Must.
Hundreds of thousands of soldiers
He emphasizes that such action would activate NATO’s collective defense guarantee, which is the foundation of the Swedish defense.
– There is our assessment so far that Russia avoids it.
But a factor that, according to MUST, can increase the threat picture in the short term is what Russia might do with its hundreds of thousands of conflicting soldiers after a ceasefire in Ukraine.
– What can happen in a slightly shorter term is if you can free up abilities, associations, soldiers and equipment that are bound to Ukraine – if they were going in a different direction.
– Then we have things that are a little closer.
At present, according to information to SVT, the NATO countries expect that Russia has 400,000 contracted soldiers in Ukraine and 100,000 conscripts involved in the war on Russian soil. Many people are feared to be traumatized and can be difficult to re -adapt to Russian society.
– It may be that some continue to be used just as military units and can be moved to other parts of our immediate area, says Thomas Nilsson.
“Big impact”
A major conflict between Russia and NATO considers MUST to be slightly further away in time.
– This major conflict, where we have said at least five years.
According to Thomas Nilsson, there are no signs that the United States has changed its attitude to NATO’s article number five or that the country has changed in its relationship with the Swedish Armed Forces. But if that were to happen, it will have major consequences – and make the security situation even worse.
– If there were changes in the American approach and actions in NATO, then it is clear that it has a major impact. NATO or the United States is a resourceful ally that has certain abilities that other countries do not have to the same extent.