Mortality will increase by 42% with a global warming of 2°C!

Since the pre-industrial era, the Earth warmed by about 1.1°C. In question, it should be remembered again, our emissions of greenhouse gas. For the time being, thanks in particular to milder winters, the overall temperature-related mortality seems to be decreasing slightly. But researchers of theUniversity College London (UCL, UK) today report that this mortality will increase dramatically if the global warming should exceed 2°C.

The researchers’ work examines the impact of climate change on the number of deaths directly related to temperature. All for England and the Country of Wales. Considering just as much the risks associated with hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter. Their conclusion: During the hottest days of the year, mortality will increase by as much as 42% compared to pre-industrial levels.

The researchers note that as the global average temperature increases, summer temperature-related mortality will increase at a rapid and non-linear rate. With an acceleration and a much higher risk once the warming reaches 2.5°C. At +3°C, the increase in mortality could reach 75%.

A real advantage in limiting global warming

In winter, the mortality rate seems to want to continue to decrease. But the result should be taken with caution. Because it does not take into account deaths linked to extreme weather events which may, in the context of global warming, occur more frequently and more markedly, especially during this season.

Until today, most temperature-related deaths in England and Wales — 9% of deaths in 2021 — are still due to cold temperatures. A figure that researchers expect to see further decline. In a completely linear way with the continuation of climate change.

But in the future, if warming exceeds 2°C, it will not only be hot days which will be to be feared, but also the days during which the summer temperatures will be at an average level. Thus the consequences of 2°C of warming will be much greater than what researchers had imagined in the past. A new way, after the recent publication of the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) devoted precisely to the impacts of climate change on our lives, to show how important it is to limit global warming. Because it could have substantial benefits on our health.

Are you going to die from global warming?

More than a third of deaths, in which strong heat are involved between 1991 and 2018, is attributable to global warming caused by anthropogenic activities, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change.

Article of Mary Origas published 25/06/2021

Global warming, due to anthropogenic activities, has a considerable impact on the planet and, consequently, on human health. The waves heat affects vulnerable, elderly people, but also the youngbecause high temperatures increase, among other things, the ozone concentration, which can damage lung tissue; they also lead to losses in agricultural productivity due to droughtsweakening the Food Safety ; excessive heat promotes the spread of infectious diseases, also called zoonoses ; they destabilize the whole world. Thus, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), this climate change is responsible for at least 150,000 deaths per year, a figure that is expected to double by 2030.

For now, the scenarios of future climate conditions predict a substantial increase in average temperatures, with extreme events. This may accentuate the pressure health and increase the number of deaths. A study published in Nature Climate Change and led by a team of London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and the University of Bern within the multi-city, multi-country (MCC) collaborative research network, wanted to determine to what extent the impacts of global warming have already occurred in the past decades until today. today, focusing on the heat-related mortality and morbidity. The results are worrying.

Global warming : “37% of heat-related deaths”

“Each continent is already suffering the disastrous consequences of human activities on our planet”, explains Professor Antonio Gasparrini (LSHTM), lead author of the study. Using data from 732 sites in 43 countries around the world, he and his team estimate that, overall, 37% of deaths related to heatin recent summer periods, were attributable to global warming. This percentage was highest in Central and South America (up to 76% in Ecuador or in Colombia, for example) and in Southeast Asia (between 48 and 61%). It should be noted that the inhabitants of low-income or middle-income countries are the most affected, while these states are only responsible for a small part of anthropogenic emissions in the past.

The estimates also show the number of annual deaths due to human-induced climate change occurring specifically in certain cities: 136 additional deaths per year in Santiago, Chile (44.3% of the total heat-related deaths in the city), 189 in Athens (26.1%), 172 in Rome (32%), 156 in Tokyo (35.6%), 177 in Madrid (31.9%), 146 in Bangkok (53.4%), 82 in London (33.6%), 141 to new York (44.2%) and 137 in Ho Chi Minh City (48.5%). Dr Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera from the University of Bern said: “We expect the proportion of heat-related deaths to continue to rise if we do nothing to combat climate change or adapt. »