More people have jobs – but the future is uncertain

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Unemployment in figures, August

At the end of August, roughly 335,000 people were registered with the Employment Service. This is a decrease of almost 64,000 people compared to the same month last year.

Of these, roughly 146,000 were domestically born, of which roughly 67,000 were women and roughly 79,000 were men. Among those born abroad, the figure is 189,000, of which just over 101,000 are women and just under 88,000 are men. Of those born abroad, roughly 154,000 were born in a country outside Europe.

The number of registered unemployed young people (18–24 years) was just over 39,000 in August, which is a decrease of just under 14,000 people compared to the same month last year.

Overall, unemployment was highest in Södermanland, Gävleborg and Skåne counties, where unemployment was 9.2, 8.7 and 8.5 per cent respectively. Västmanland County followed with an unemployment rate of 8.1 percent. The lowest unemployment rate was 4.2 percent in Gotland County.

During August, nearly 33,000 of all those registered with the Employment Service started work. That is nearly 3,000 fewer than in the corresponding month last year.

Source: Arbetsförmedlingen

Unemployment continues to fall throughout the country. At the end of August, it was 6.6 percent. A decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year, statistics from the Employment Service show. At the same time, there are dark clouds in the sky.

— It is a more difficult economic situation now, with high inflation and high electricity prices. When the economy turns down, of course it has an impact on the labor market, says Emil Persson, labor market analyst at Arbetsförmedlingen.

It is still too early to say how big an impact a recession will have on the labor market, and when such an effect might be felt, according to Emil Persson.

— We have had a strong labor market during the year and there is still a strong demand for labour. We don’t see any signs right now of that turning around, so it’s hard to say if or when that will happen.

There may be more long-term unemployed

The number of long-term unemployed, who have been out of work for at least twelve months, has also decreased. From roughly 188,000 to 156,000. If we enter a recession, the risk is that we will see an increase in the long-term unemployed, says Emil Persson.

— If the number of unemployed increases, those who are at the back of the queue risk ending up even further behind.

Young people, aged 18–24, are also a group that tends to be affected by recession to a greater extent than other groups, partly because they more often have temporary employment, says Emil Persson. Young people today account for ten percent of the number of unemployed. A decrease compared to last year, when 13 percent of the unemployed were young people.

— Young people are a cyclically sensitive group, when the economy turns down, it shows in youth unemployment. When it turns upwards, they are also the ones who get jobs first.

More have been notified

The service sector can be an industry that will suffer from recession and tougher times ahead. When households’ purchasing power weakens, they often resort to hotel and restaurant visits, says Emil Persson.

— But it remains to be seen how it will turn out, high electricity prices can also hit the industry hard. Previous crises have affected different industries, it differs.

The number that has been announced in August is just under 3,000. The figure for the same period last year was just under 1,900. But there are no figures to worry about, according to Emil Persson.

— The notification numbers vary month by month, when it is below 3,000 it is still low. We will follow the development of those figures.

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