A decisive double vote is being held this Sunday, October 20 in Moldova, for President Maia Sandu, who hopes to be reappointed to her post, and for the European anchoring of this former Soviet republic, located between Romania and Ukraine. The same day as the presidential election, a referendum on membership of the European Union took place, against a backdrop of war in Ukraine and while Vladimir Putin’s Russia was accused of wanting to destabilize the country to bring it back under its control.
From our special correspondent in Chisinau,
Never since the end of the USSR and its independence in August 1991 has a vote taken on such importance for the Moldova. Long torn between Russian influence and the pro-European aspirations of part of the population, the small republic of Eastern Europe will have to decide between these two poles of influence. In addition to the first round of the presidential election, which will pit the pro-European Maia Sandu to much less Europhile candidates, a referendum will take place on membership of theEuropean Union (EU).
If the “yes” vote is successful, the objective of joining the EU will be enshrined in the Constitution and the European camp will emerge strengthened in the face of all those who defend the neutrality of the country, or even a return to privileged relations with Moscow. . “ In 30 years of independence, things have not changed much in our country “, points out Vitaly, a 49-year-old engineer who is preparing to vote “yes” in the referendum. “ Our democracy is fragile and I hope this will change with the help of the European Union », he adds. Same story for Dora, a retired worker who struggles to make ends meet: “ With my pension I receive 2,600 lei, that’s around 135 euros… And do you see the prices in the stores? Maybe with Europe, things will be better! »
In this country which has long been placed under the orbit of the great neighboring powers (Ottoman Empire, Russian Empire then Soviet), such an orientation is not self-evident: the official language is Romanian, but Russian is still widely used, and the generation that experienced the Soviet period remains attached to traditional ties with Russia.
“ I would like to vote for Europe and for Maia Sandu, but I fear for our churches and for our Orthodox faith », slips Raïssa, a resident of Chisinau, very sensitive to the arguments hammered out by the pro-Russian camp, which also raises the threat of a conflict with Russia in the event of accession to the EU. “ Brussels wants to helpUkraine and refuses to seek peace with Moscowagrees Mikhail, who is preparing to boycott the vote. For us Moldovans this is very worrying because we are very close to the war zone! And if relations between Europe and Russia worsen, the consequences could be dire. »
“ Hybrid Warfare »
The latest polls certainly predict a clear victory for “yes”, credited with 54% of the vote. But a participation of at least 33% will be required for the vote to be validated. And Russia is accused of having launched a vast campaign of influence and disinformation targeting the segment of the population who are most worried about this Western anchorage.
“ Those who oppose this anchoring are attached to these long-standing ties with Russiadeciphers Florent Parmentier, secretary general of Cevipof and specialist in the post-Soviet space*. But Moscow also bases its narrative on the defense of traditional values, particularly via the Orthodox Church. In this narrative, for example, the European Union is accused of wanting to defend LGBT+ rights to the detriment of family values. The country’s economic difficulties are also highlighted, as pro-Russians criticize the authorities for not wanting to negotiate with Moscow for cheaper energy. There is a mixture of values, economic opportunities and geopolitical questions in this positioning against Europe. »
With its relays and these arguments, Russia hopes to keep this country considered essential from a strategic point in its orbit. For the Moldovan government and the country’s security services, there is therefore no doubt that Moscow will use all means to derail the electoral process. Through pro-Russian political groups, which are still influential, but also through a vast disinformation campaign carried out on social networks. The Moldovan authorities accuse Russia of having spent 100 million euros in one year to achieve its objectives. All the components of “hybrid warfare”, already used in Georgia or in Ukraine, would thus be implemented in Moldova to keep the country in the Russian sphere of influence. “ Russia spares no effort to subvert the electoral process » recently recognized Josep Borrellthe head of European diplomacy.
Buying votes
According to the Moldovan police, Russia tried to buy the votes of 130,000 Moldovans for an amount of 13 million euros, through the businessman Ilan Shor. This Moldovan oligarch lives in exile in Russia due to his sentence to 15 years in prison for fraud, and does not hide his pro-Russian sympathies. Ilan Shor did not deny having offered money to his compatriots, through Telegram messaging, to vote “no” and to have people vote “no” in the referendum. All payments made are “ legal » the businessman even argued, accusing Moldova of becoming “ a police state » after the banning of several of its political groups and calling on its troops to “ continue the fight “.
Another lever used by Moscow according to the Moldovan authorities: the dissemination of false messages on social networks to warn the population about the consequences that joining the EU would have. According to the Check Point research agency, a disinformation campaign targeted Moldovan officials, who were sent false documents from European institutions. One of them claimed that if it joined the EU, workers from the Middle East would be attracted to Moldova, or that the rainbow flag of the LGBT+ community would be hung on administrative buildings.
Mixed assessment
The other priority target of pro-Russian relays in Moldova obviously remains Maia Sandu, this 52-year-old economist who became president in 2020 by defeating Igor Dodon, who had chosen during his mandate to strengthen ties with Russia. His reputation for integrity and uprightness makes him a delicate target to attack in a country plagued by corruption. And the leader of the Action and Solidarity Party (liberal) was able to make herself heard on the international scene, achieving unprecedented notoriety for a Moldovan leader. As soon as Russia invaded Ukraine on a large scale on February 24, 2022, it cut ties with Moscow, welcomed tens of thousands of refugees and turned to the European Union.
Result: Maia Sandu organized the summit of the European Political Community in 2023, and obtained the formal opening of accession negotiations with the European Union last June. But his international successes and his reputation for uprightness are not enough to compensate for a lackluster record on economic reforms and the fight against corruption. Moldova remained one of the poorest countries in Europe and suffered greatly from Covid-19, then from the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, with galloping inflation which reached 29% in 2022 before falling again. at 13% then at 5% today. In addition, the one who made it one of her campaign promises failed to reform the judicial system.
Credited with 36% of the votes for the first round of the presidential election, Maia Sandu is nevertheless ahead of her main opponents. Supported by the pro-Russian socialists, Alexandr Stoianoglo is far behind, with 10% voting intentions. Dismissed in 2021 and himself accused of corruption, the former prosecutor general of Moldova could however put the outgoing president in difficulty in the event of a second round, on November 3, by rallying all opponents of the pro-European turn around his name . Officially in favor of joining the EU, it nonetheless remains supported by a party, Igor Dodon’s PSRM, which has always preferred the alliance with Russia rather than with Western countries. A failure of Maia Sandu as president or a lackluster re-election, as well as low participation in the referendum, would be interpreted as a disavowal and could not fail to energize Russia’s supporters in the run-up to the 2025 legislative elections. .
For the pro-European camp, this double vote therefore has the appearance of “ double or double », which Maia Sandu never stopped hammering home during the electoral campaign. “ Every generation has its mission, and those who came before us fought for their freedom, for their language, for independenceshe told her supporters gathered last month in front of the Opera House in Chisinau, the Moldovan capital. Our mission will be to win peace, prosperity and integrate Moldova into the European family. »
* Co-author with Josette Durieux of Moldova at the crossroads of worlds (Ed. No Location)
The plum, symbol of Moldova’s pro-European turn
The former Soviet republic did not wait for this vote to strengthen its economic ties with Brussels. And a fruit embodies this connection: the plum. In Europe, more than one in four plums comes from Moldova. A success immediately taken up by pro-European politicians.
By Gali Bonin
Fresh, dried or filled with nuts, “ Moldovan plums are the best in the world “. This is not an advertising slogan, but a quote from the Prime Minister of Moldova.
When it comes to extolling the merits of this fruit, politicians don’t mince their words. Pro-European President Maia Sandu even made it a campaign argument: the symbol of European success.
The story begins in 2022, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To help Moldova turn away from Moscow, Brussels is canceling customs duties on certain agricultural products, including plums. Result: the country becomes the leading exporter to the European Union with more than 60,000 tonnes in one year. A new market that brings in more than 35 million euros for Moldovan farmers.
If the plum is held up as an example, it is not the only one. In 25 years, two thirds of Moldovan exports have shifted to the West. At the end of the 1990s, Russia accounted for more than 60% of its foreign trade. A figure which fell to less than 4% last year.