Modest growth in Chatham-Kent continues to underline housing need: Consultant

As expected given the current demand, modest population growth in Chatham-Kent will increase the need for new housing in the coming years, a consultant told municipal council.

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After a decade in which the population decreased, the municipality is forecast to reach 120,600 by 2041 and 122,200 by 2051. This represents an increase of approximately 15,100 persons between 2021 and 2051, or an average annual growth rate of 0.4 per cent.

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With this trend predicted to continue as the regional economy expands, Chatham-Kent will require more housing in a variety of forms, said Jamie Cook, a consultant and managing partner with Watson and Associates Economists Ltd.

Housing preferences are anticipated to shift to medium-and high-density housing, driven by diverse demands from younger and older populations, as well as families.

The continued decline in relative housing affordability is also a factor.

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“While you’re much more competitive from a housing affordability perspective, compared to the larger urban centers across Southwestern Ontario and central Ontario, housing prices are increasing here as well,” Cook told councilors during the Oct. 23 meeting.

The population increase is primarily driven by net migration from other parts of the province.

To accommodate this, Chatham-Kent will require an additional 8,290 households by 2051, or approximately 275 new households a year.

By 2051, the municipality is forecast to add approximately 5,100 jobs. Forecast employment growth is anticipated to be balanced between industrial, commercial and institutional sectors.

Recent non-residential building permit activity in Chatham-Kent, and labor force trends in the broader region, suggest the municipality should experience moderate employment growth in the near term across a range of sectors, including industrial.

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Approximately 59 per cent of expected employment growth for Chatham-Kent has been allocated to Chatham itself.

Continued demographic and technological changes will also drive increased demand for remote work. By 2051, work-at-home employment is expected to expand by more than 600 jobs, mostly associated with the knowledge-based and creative economy.

Cook said there was a decline in labor force activity in the late 2000s, around the time of the financial crisis, which has since rebounded.

“That period of 2009 forward, we started to see a period of gradual economic recovery,” he said. “Very slow, but steady increases.

“Then, the pandemic hit and we saw this rapid contraction of (the) labor force in 2020 … From 2020 to 2023, we’ve seen a growth rate in labor force activity for the broader economic region of about four per cent. Which is quite significant, considering what’s been happening relative to that last few years in the historical 20-year period.”

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A localized shortfall of urban residential land has been identified in Chatham, Blenheim, Dresden and Tilbury, resulting in a total need for expansion of about 177 gross hectares (437 acres).

A combined shortfall of approximately 56 gross hectares (138 acres) of employment or industrial lands has been identified in Wallaceburg, Dresden, Chatham/Bloomfield Business Park and the secondary urban centers.

The second phase of the municipal comprehensive review will be completed as part of the official plan amendment process.

This will include tasks such as:

The official plan amendment process will require consultation with stakeholder groups and the public.

Administration will be releasing a request for proposals to retain a firm with expertise in all aspects of the comprehensive review. It is anticipated the RFP will be released later this year, with the process initiated and completed in 2024.

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