(Finance) – Il September 2024 MIC it stood at 8.9, down four tenths of a point compared to August, reaching a new low since the start of the historical series. The data – he explains Confcommercio in a note – is the synthesis of a stabilization of unemployment extended to 6.7%, and of a slowdown in the growth rate of the prices of goods and services with high purchasing frequency (0.5% from 1.1% of the previous month).
In September, based on the results of the continuous survey on the workforce, there was a decrease of 63 thousand employed compared to the previous month associated with a drop in job seekers of 14 thousand units compared to August. These dynamics confirmed the official unemployment rate at 6.1%equaling the minimums reached in the first part of 2007. In line with what was found in the most recent months, these trends were associated with a growth in inactive people (+56 thousand on the month, +337 on an annual basis). In the same month the authorized CIG hours they were just under 43.7 million, to which are added approximately 1.3 million hours for allowances paid by solidarity funds, signaling a worrying increase in the annual comparison. In terms of hours of CIG and FIS actually used these data led to an increase, compared to August, in terms of seasonally adjusted standard work units (AWU). The combination of these dynamics has, however, stabilized the unemployment rate at 6.7%.
Inflation of high-frequency goods and services it confirmed, also in September, a slowdown with an annual variation of 0.5%, a decrease of six tenths of a point compared to August. Preliminary data for October indicate an interruption in the recovery process, with an estimated growth in prices of the reference aggregate of 1.0% on an annual basis. Data which is not worrying at the moment, given the low level of inflation.
“The possibility of maintaining, in the coming months, the area of social hardship, calculated according to the MIC metric, at current levels – underlines Confcommercio – remains, therefore, strongly conditioned by future developments in the labor market. From this perspective, the increased use of forms of salary integration and the tendency to leave the area of activity constitute worrying signs. The lower dynamism of the labor market could exacerbate, together with small increases in the prices of frequently purchased goods, the tendency of families to maintain very prudent attitudes on the consumption side, triggering a negative spiral that would add to the difficulties generated by a not particularly brilliant foreign demand”.