Finnish military experts are wary of the assessment that Russia is planning a major offensive to conquer all of Eastern Ukraine.
– It is difficult to know what Russia intends and what it is capable of. There is very little confirmed information about Russia’s losses and, for example, its material capabilities, comments Docent of Military Sciences, Visiting Researcher at the Alexander Institute Ilmari Käihkö.
reported on Tuesday that Russia has established a new front and intends to attack from three main directions towards the eastern parts of Ukraine. Avdijivka, which the Russian troops took control of last Friday, would serve as a springboard for the breakthrough.
The Russian plans were told by a senior Finnish officer familiar with the war in Ukraine, who has participated, among other things, in training the Ukrainian armed forces.
Coalition MP and former chief of intelligence of the General Staff, major general evp Pekka Toveri considers the Finnish officer’s assessment as a possible scenario, but calls for caution when assessing Russia’s military movements.
– Dragging the arrow on the map is easy, but then the difficulties begin. Russia is now fighting a war of consumption. It’s a different matter how far this strategy goes, Toveri says.
A war of attrition refers to a situation where the armed forces strive for victory by causing the opponent so many material and personnel losses that it is no longer able to continue the fight.
The Russians reached the top of the neck
In the war going on in Ukraine, the balance of power between the parties has varied significantly over the past two years, and both sides have had their share of victories and defeats.
According to Finnish experts, Russia now has the military advantage. Ukraine has a shortage of ammunition and crew, which has started to be seen on the front as well.
At the same time, it is known in the Kremlin that the Western powers are slowly increasing their munitions production rate and support for Ukraine may increase later, as long as the necessary aid packages can be rammed through, for example, the US Congress.
The Russian administration is also aware that the country’s economy continues to deteriorate.
– Russia can strive for a solution during this year, because right now it is stronger. Next year, Russia will be worse off, when ammunition production in the West increases, sums up Toveri.
However, according to Käihkö, it is unclear what Russia’s relative strength is sufficient for.
– One of the lessons of this war is that attacking defensive positions is expensive and time-consuming. Small areas have been conquered with great sacrifices. Russia has more resources than Ukraine, but they are also limited, Käihkö analysed.
If Russia were to aim for a quick solution this year and to occupy the whole of Eastern Ukraine, it would require a general motion in practice.
However, Toveri considers this unlikely, because the decision is politically very difficult for the Russian leadership.
– Recently, in connection with the launch of the movement, twice as many people fled abroad from Russia as were recruited into the armed forces. It would not be a popular solution. On the other hand With Putin there’s really nothing left to waste, Toveri reflects.
A sudden rush is unlikely
Russia can carry out a major attack after the war season, possibly soon, estimates the officer interviewed by in an article published on Tuesday.
Käihkö considers a big sudden change in the front lines – or the collapse of Ukraine’s defenses, feared in the West – unlikely.
– For two years, estimates of the progress of the war have fluctuated like a pendulum from pure optimism to gloomy pessimism.
– The fact is, however, that both sides are struggling with manpower shortages, which makes attacking on a large scale difficult, Käihkö continues.
Toveri also shares this assessment.
– Russia has learned to use its strengths in the Ukrainian war. It doesn’t have the crew or the necessary know-how for big operations, but it knows how to wage a war of attrition and we will certainly see that in the future, says Toveri.