US arms aid may begin to have a practical effect on the fighting within a few weeks, but first Russia will accelerate its strikes.
The decision of the US House of Representatives to approve the aid to Ukraine sends an important signal, which may also affect the fighting will of the Ukrainian soldiers, a Swedish expert estimates.
– The message is that Ukraine has not been abandoned. Two things need to be taken care of now. At first, we need to get more artillery ammunition to the front. In addition, air defense must be strengthened so that Ukrainian cities and power plants can be protected, says the teacher of military strategy at the Swedish National Defense University Joakim Paasikivi.
In Paasikivi’s opinion, information about the aid package can increase fighting morale in Ukraine.
– This has a positive effect on the soldiers and all Ukrainians. The conditions for soldiers to fight, win and ultimately stay alive are improving.
According to Paasikivi, the important message to Russia is that it will not succeed in its attack.
After the US House of Representatives, the aid to Ukraine must be approved by the Senate and then President Biden will sign the decision.
Russia is expected to accelerate its attacks
Russia is likely to increase its strikes on Ukraine to take advantage of the delay before aid takes effect.
– Russia is trying to secure the limited success it has achieved in itself, before more weapons start arriving. I think that the weapon aid will start to be seen in practice within a few weeks, says Paasikivi.
He believes that additional aid will mess up Russia’s plans. However, it is difficult to estimate how and when the war will end.
– I think it’s clear that Russia won’t get the quick solution it wants in the war. There has been talk of a Russian summer attack, but it seems obvious that it will not succeed, says Paasikivi.
According to him, the question is whether Ukraine can strengthen its forces so much that it could launch a counterattack in 2025. Another thing is what is happening in the Russian economy.