When Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner troops took city after city in Russia, many concluded that Vladimir Putin’s power is weakened – which in itself affects the president’s power, says Johan Norberg.
– It definitely affects the image of how we perceive Russia. And perhaps even more important: the image that many Russians and perhaps even the Russian elite have.
It was surprising that the Wagner group managed to get so far so quickly, Norberg believes.
– If it is a genuine coup attempt, which it appears to be, it is something that the security services should have discovered and prevented.
What is Lukashenko’s role?
It was Alexander Lukashenko who kept in touch with Prigozhin during the uprising. According to Norberg, the Belarusian president plays an important role, among other things as a way for Putin to avoid touching the Wagner boss as a person.
– As soon as Prigozhin is mentioned by name, he becomes a real opponent – an indirect recognition, says the military analyst, adding that Putin did the same with opposition politician Alexei Navalny.
The future is uncertain for Wagner
But Prigozhin’s power will probably be limited in the future.
– It is usually the case in Russia that if you have ended up in exile, you lose all influence, says Norberg.
What happens to his Wagner soldiers, however, is unclear. There is a desire from the official side that they should subordinate themselves to the military.
– We’ll see how it will work. It all depends on how individual soldiers and unit commanders react.
Not just the mercenary army
Aleksandr Golts, an analyst at the Foreign Policy Institute, published just a few days before the uprising an article that Wagner poses a threat to the Kremlin, which could lead to civil war.
IN Current he points out that Prigozhin has the largest mercenary army, but not the only one – and that the threat of future uprisings is not eliminated.
– One of the biggest mistakes of the Russian authorities is that they have renounced having a military monopoly.
Hear more from Aleksandr Golts in the clip above.