The triumph hoped for by the Republicans did not come. And it was Republican Senator Lindsay Graham who best summed up the situation: “It’s definitely not a red wave, that’s for sure”, lucidly recognized the elected official from South Carolina, early Tuesday evening, in reference to the color of his party: red. On the side of the White House, on the contrary, the Biden clan is still crossing its fingers by nourishing the doubtless unreasonable hope (the final results are not known) of retaining at least a ric-rac majority in the Senate. In the House of Representatives, the Republicans should be ahead of the Democrats by only ten seats.
American electoral logic and history dictate that after the first two years of a presidency, the opposition systematically wins the midterm legislative elections (midterms). Because of the unpopularity of the almost octogenarian Joe Biden – he will be 80 years old on November 20 – the essential question therefore concerns the extent of the Democratic defeat. However, despite inflation, the main concern of Americans, the presidential camp is holding up relatively well. The most likely is that the Democratic Party will lose control of the House of Representatives (435 seats in total) and, perhaps, that of the Senate (100). But very little.
Supporters of Donald Trump protest outside his residence in Mar-A-Lago, Florida, immediately after the announcement of an FBI search, August 8, 2022
afp.com/Giorgio Viera
This does not help Donald Trump, who was precisely planning to ride a red wave to announce his presidential candidacy for 2024, perhaps as early as next week. Several signals confirm what certain analysts have been indicating for several months: the former real estate tycoon and host of The Apprentice is not so popular, on the right, who himself would like to believe. Thus, the “Independent” voters (they are registered as such on the electoral lists and usually sway the elections one way or the other) did not rush to the Republican vote, doubtless considering that the rhetoric of the resentment dear to Trump goes too far and that the decision of the Supreme Court, last June, against abortion, is not going in the right direction.
Above all, the 250 candidates supported by the former president across the country (sometimes against Republican Party candidates) are far from having all benefited from a positive “Trump effect”. Among the candidates for the Senate, House of Representatives or governorship eliminated are Sarah Palin (Alaska), Mehmet Oz (Pennsylvania), John Gibbs (Michigan), John Kent (Washington State), JR Majewski (Ohio) and others. Trump does not come across as a kingmaker with a “magic touch”. In the key state of Georgia, the score is extremely tight and could lead to a runoff on December 6 between Senate candidates Herschel Walker, a pro-Trump former American football player and incumbent Rafael Warnock, a Democratic pastor. .
Republican Ron DeSantis makes a speech after announcing his re-election as governor of Florida, in Tampa, November 08, 2022
afp.com/Giorgio VIERA
But it is the triumphant re-election Ron DeSantis (59.4%) that really upsets Donald Trump. Governor of the state of Florida – where the ex-president resides – for four years, the 44-year-old elected official is regularly presented as the best alternative to a Trump candidacy in 2024 among Republicans. Which irritates the latter to the highest point. On Tuesday on Fox News, Donald Trump bluntly warned Ron DeSantis against running for president in 2024, saying it would hurt the Republican Party.
“I think he would make a mistake. I think the base wouldn’t like it,” he said before changing gears, stepping up a notch in the threat. “I don’t know if he will run in 2024 but if he does he could get hurt a lot. I really believe he could get hurt badly. I don’t think it would be good for the party.” .
And to continue: “If DeSantis were to announce his candidacy for president, I would reveal things about him that are not flattering. I know more about him than anyone except, perhaps, his wife…” For finish, in the best Tony Soprano style [NDLR : le personnage mafieux de la série éponyme], Trump described his potential opponent as “a good guy”: “There is no dispute with me, and I am very high in the polls.” Implied: it does not make the weight. Already last weekend, the former tenant of the White House had launched hostilities by calling the rising Republican star “Ron DeSanctimonious” (Ron the hypocrite, Ron the moralizer) during a meeting. The sign of a certain feverishness.