This is one of the most memorable ads of the election. It depicts a family with two children having dinner. Someone’s knocking at the door. Two police officers come to arrest the mother for “illegal termination of pregnancy”. When her husband intervenes, the agents draw their weapons and take the woman on board like a common criminal. “Elections have consequences,” the voiceover says. “Stop Republicans from criminalizing abortion everywhere.” Funded by Eric Swalwell, a Democratic House candidate in California, the spot warns of what he thinks could happen if the very anti-abortion Republicans regain control of Congress.
In the home stretch before the midterms vote on Tuesday, November 8, American voters are inundated with political advertisements online, on the radio, on TV, especially in the key states which can decide on the domination of the Senate. Spending is roughly evenly split between the two parties, but in this extremely polarized country, the content of advertising messages gives the impression that they are two different countries.
On the one hand, the Democrats are putting the package on abortion, hoping to mobilize their troops, reassembled against the decision of the Supreme Court. In Arizona, Mark Kelly, a former astronaut turned senator, has made it the central theme of his campaign. In one of the ads, a young woman says she got pregnant at 14 and had an abortion. Her partner was 18 and violent. “It wasn’t easy but it was the right choice,” she says. “Blake Masters [le candidat républicain] has no idea what I’ve been through. It’s not up to him to make that decision for me or any other woman,” she says as the ad explains that Masters wants to ban abortion even in cases of incest or rape.
The war of commercials
On the other side, Republicans are focusing on inflation and bombarding Joe Biden with criticism, aware that, as a rule, midterm elections turn into a referendum on the president in office. In Nevada, for example, Adam Laxalt, a candidate for the senator’s seat, keeps accusing his Democratic rival of having spent wrongfully, of being responsible for soaring food and fuel prices, of tax increase…
To be certain of mobilizing their base, the Republicans also multiply frightening spots, in black and white and on a background of apocalyptic music which denounce violence and crime. The message is simple: Democrats, it is hammered home, want to release murderers and cut police budgets. In one of the advertisements, we see a type of hooded back. “He killed a teenager in cold blood to steal money from him and buy heroin,” announces the narrator. “John Fetterman [candidat démocrate au Sénat en Pennsylvanie] wanted him to be relaxed. He said he wanted to get as many criminals out of jail as possible], the voiceover continues before calling Fetterman a “leftist”.
In the final days of the campaign, candidates usually refocus their messaging on their strengths and platform. But this year, many continue to adopt a negative tone and attack their adversary with vitriol. This is the case in Georgia where the Democrats are unleashed against Herschel Walker, the former American football player who drags countless pans. He is accused of having embellished his CV, of having been violent towards his ex-wife, of having paid for the abortion of two girlfriends… In an advertisement entitled “Hypocrite”, a narrator declares: “Herschel Walker wants to deny you access to abortion … But he paid for a girlfriend’s”. Another ends with this slogan: “Walker showed and showed that he was ignorant and ill-prepared. Should he represent you?”
Record amounts in all polls
Without regulation and control, the candidates and the outside groups that support them can indulge in all kinds of false, incendiary, racist overtones. America First Legal, a group created by a former adviser to Donald Trump, accuses in a radio ad the Biden administration, universities and companies of “openly discriminating against white people”. “When did anti-white racism become normal?” asks the narrator. Another spot targets transgender people, saying the White House wants to “make it easier for teens and young adults to have breast and genital removal surgery.”
What message will hit voters? Nobody knows. If we are to believe what is happening in Georgia, the saturation of the airwaves has little impact on voting intentions. Democrat Raphael Warnock has spent some $72 million on ads, one of the highest amounts this year. And yet, he remains neck and neck with his opponent. And what is true in Georgia is also true elsewhere. If the Republicans are almost guaranteed to regain control of the House of Representatives, the battle for the Senate remains very close.
But one thing is certain, “we have never seen so much money spent during the midterms as in 2022, for seats in Congress and in the States”, affirms Sheila Krumholz, the director of OpenSecrets, an organization which studies campaign finance. “We are recording record amounts in all the polls.” The total cost of the elections should exceed the pharaonic sum of 16.7 billion dollars, much more than the 14 billion of the midterms of 2018.
11 billion dollars to become governor
The funds come in part from groups funded by a growing number of billionaires, mostly Republicans. Of the total spent on congressional elections, 15.4% comes from billionaires compared to 11.9% in 2020. Also according to OpenSecrets, of the 25 biggest donors, 18 are Republicans and have spent 200 million dollars more than the democrats. And the amounts are undoubtedly much larger because a lot of money is circulating in an opaque manner. The biggest funder in 2022 is Democrat George Soros who has donated some $126 million to his political group. But he only used a very small portion for these elections.
“A torrent of billionaire money is drowning our democracy,” Frank Clemente, director of Americans for Tax Fairness, tweeted. With one goal, he adds, “to cut taxes to make even more money and have more power and influence.” The effect is visible for example in New York. Ronald Lauder, an heir to the eponymous beauty brand and one of New York’s wealthiest, shelled out $11 million to elect Trump ally Lee Zeldin as Governor. An unparalleled amount!
But if a lot of conservatives like Tim Michels win, there may not be a need to spend as much in future election campaigns. The Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate said in a rally, “Once I’m governor, Republicans will never lose another election in Wisconsin.”