Michigan is a coveted state for the American presidential election with its 15 major voters, but if Harris has a slight advantage in the poll results, she is not clearly winning against Trump. A look back at the electoral habits of this swing state.
Who will win the US presidential election in Michigan, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? Difficult to answer this question before the vote is held and the counting is so close that the results of the polls are so close. Until the last day before the election, no trend giving the advantage to one or the other of the candidates took hold. Several poll aggregators now agree to give Kamala Harris a very slight lead in Michigan.
A surprise is still possible in Michigan, which is not a “swing state” – or key state – for nothing. Donald Trump hopes to conquer the 15 major voters of this state as he did, narrowly, in 2016, while Kamala Harris is banking on the voters who had supported her Democratic predecessor in 2020. In this state, the vote of the community Arab-Muslim promises to be decisive. This electorate usually won over to the Democratic camp could fail Kamala Harris to “punish” the Democratic administration of Joe Biden for his positions in relation to Israel and the war in the Middle East.
What do the polls say between Harris and Trump in Michigan?
The polls on the American presidential election did not highlight any clear and lasting trends in Michigan: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were in turn placed at the top of the polls. The Democratic candidate has, however, come in first place more often than her rival since the end of July – a period when Joe Biden gave up his candidacy and supported his vice-president to replace him. According to the compilation of surveys carried out by 270towinas of November 4, Kamala Harris is credited with a 1.8 point lead over the Republican candidate: 48.6% of voting intentions against 46.8%. An advance confirmed, but minimized by the aggregator RealClear which announces an advance of 0.5 points: 48.3% against 47.8% as of November 5.
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3:40 p.m. – What timetable for the results?
15 electoral votes are at stake in Michigan. However, the result may not come straight away. In this state, most votes are generally cast by noon the day after the election. New means have been put in place to speed up the count this year. If there is no specific time, you may have to wait until the next day to know the results.
15:20 – What trend in Michigan?
While Americans are voting, a Realclearpolling poll announces a very close score: only 0.5 points ahead for Kamala Harris with 48.3% against 47.8%. FiveThirtyEight rather estimates the gap at one point, with 47% against 48%. Another key state where the result looks uncertain.