The news will surely give a little balm to the heart of the Ukrainian troops, at the dawn of the fifth month of the war. kyiv announced, on June 23, the arrival on its soil of American Himars rocket launchers. They “will significantly enhance Ukraine’s capabilities,” said the US Defense Secretary. Will they be able to reverse the balance of power in the Donbass, where the fighting against the Russian occupier is concentrated? The Russian “pincer” is slowly closing in on the Ukrainian soldiers in this very strategic eastern part, which Moscow hopes to seize completely. kyiv has only two options left: to withdraw before its troops are completely surrounded, or to resist. A military as well as a political dilemma, underlines Michel Goya, former colonel of the navy troops, today a historian of the war.
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Dario Ingiusto / L’Express
L’Express: In the Donbass, current epicenter of the war, the Ukrainian army seems increasingly in difficulty. How long can she last?
Michael Goya : In this second phase of the war, the Russians have one objective: to take Donbass in its entirety. To achieve this, Vladimir Putin’s troops have four towns in their sights: on the one hand Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, on the other Lysytchansk and Severodonetsk (Ukrainian forces have been ordered to withdraw from Severodonetsk, announced June 24 the regional governor, Ed). Half of the Russian soldiers and a good part of the pro-Russian separatist forces are mobilized in these two battles: in the west and in the east, to encircle these two “pockets” little by little. If they manage to bring them down, the generals will be able to say to Putin: “mission accomplished”.
They succeeded in opening a first breach at the beginning of May, by seizing the town of Popasna. It is their main victory since the beginning of this offensive because they took a high point, from where one can see the whole region, and which dominates the main road going from Bakhmout in Lysychansk. This logistics axis is now vulnerable to artillery fire.
From then on, the Ukrainians had three options: 1/ retreat 2/ try to resist as best they could while waiting for the Russian forces to run out 3/ try to counter-attack to regain ground.
They chose the third option instead, so they sent reinforcements, counterattacked in the Popasna area and in Severodonetsk. Logically, this did not give much. Result, a quarter of the Ukrainian army is found in an area of 50 kilometers by 50. If the Russians manage to surround them, they would inflict a major defeat on the Ukrainian army.
Why did you choose this third option?
Because there is a contradiction. The “pragmatic” decision for a chief of staff would have been to evacuate the area. But at the political level, it is complicated to let go of ground and to abandon two cities like Lyssytchansk and Severodonetsk when the official discourse consists in saying that not only are we not giving up anything, but that we are going to repel the enemy at least until at the limits of February 24.
Now the Ukrainian army has only two options. What to do with this dilemma?
The more time passes, the more the withdrawal becomes difficult to organize. The other option is resistance. The hope of the Ukrainians is that the Russians will eventually wear themselves out. It’s a race against time to see who wears out the fastest. On one side as on the other, a lot of men and material resources (ammunition, shells) are consumed. Mechanically, there will come a time when we can no longer attack, operations will have to stop.
The problem is that we do not know very well when this moment will arrive. This is measured in months. With a major question: if the Ukrainians resist until the end of the summer, will the Russians still be able to continue the offensive?
Do we have a clearer vision today of the state of the forces involved?
On both sides, the troops are very worn. In volume, they are not very far apart. In the Battle of Donbass there are not many more Russian and pro-Russian fighters than Ukrainian fighters. On the other hand, the first have much more means, combat vehicles and especially artillery and shells, there is the real Russian superiority.
The United States has delivered a huge number of weapons to Ukraine since the start of the invasion on February 24. Do we really know what happens to these weapons once they cross the border? Are they used correctly?
In reality, we have quite little visibility. We imagine that these weapons are sent directly to the front after crossing Ukraine. However, several problems arise. The first concerns the use of these materials: to learn how to use them, it is necessary to train a lot of cadres, and continuous training since if Ukrainian artillerymen are killed and injured, they must be able to be replaced.
Moreover, all these different pieces of equipment require different know-how. Not to mention all the logistical problems. The shells may be standardized (the same can be used on the Caesar gun or the American M777 howitzer), but the artillery pieces used to fire them differ and cannot be repaired in the same way. The maintenance of all this equipment is an endless headache!
The delivery of these heavy materials on the front is not an easy task either: it often passes by the railroad, then must arrive on daily bombarded zones. You have to imagine that there are hundreds of Russian aerial sorties every day and rocket launchers capable of firing up to 70 kilometers.
Above all, the major problem for the Ukrainians is the availability of shells. The Westerners sacrificed a good part of their artillery.
Not so long ago, some analysts were saying that Ukraine will have won the war by the end of summer. Were they wrong?
It all depends on what you call winning this war. In my opinion, the only hope of the Ukrainians is to prevent the Russians from achieving their objective, which is to completely take over Donbass.
If they manage to do so at the end of the summer, when we reach the limit of what the two camps are capable of doing, it will already be quite a lot.
In the very long term, if American aid continues, we can hope for a transformation of the Ukrainian army. Then, we will move into another phase of the war – perhaps by the end of the year – and the balance of power could switch to the Ukrainian side. But this scenario remains very distant and hypothetical.