Sweden, just like Mexico, has had an increase in gang-related shootings. Although the number of people imprisoned and killed increases, the violence continues to increase. In 2021, around 34,000 people were murdered in Mexico, making the country one of the most violent in the world. Despite extensive efforts and more arrests, violence in the country continues to increase. In an attempt to circle the causes, researchers from the Mexican National Institute of Geography and Statistics have used mathematical models to develop different scenarios. They have then tried changing different parameters to compare the outputs. Steady influx The conclusion, which is published in the scientific journal Science, is that it is the new recruitment that is the root of the evil. According to their estimate, the Mexican gangs have a total of between 160,000 and 185,000 members and recruit around 350 people a week to maintain their size. – Even here in Sweden, we have increased efforts against gang criminals in the last ten years and we are arresting and imprisoning more. Despite that and despite the fact that more people are killed in the conflicts, gang-related violence does not decrease, but instead increases, says Manne Gerell, a criminologist at Malmö University who researches gang violence. National Police Chief Anders Thornberg has previously said that around three young people a week are recruited into the criminal gangs in Sweden and also highlighted the importance of breaking that trend. – But how it will be done is a ten thousand kroner question and this study does not answer that, says Manne Gerell. Schools and after-school centers are often mentioned as decisive factors in preventing children and young people from being drawn to gangs. But according to Manne Gerell, efforts are probably required earlier than that. To start already via childcare centres, maternity care and preschools. Investing money One challenge is to identify who is in the risk zone and how much it would cost to invest in preventive measures. – Say we identify 10,000 children and bet the fantasy sum of one million per child. Then I think we could catch a large part of those who are at risk of becoming gang criminals. Sure, it’s money, but you can compare it to the 21 billion that the judiciary will receive in the coming years. Maybe we would get more for our money if they invested in stopping recruitment? According to the Mexican researchers’ model, the trend will worsen and the number of people killed will increase by 8 percent until 2027, even if twice as many gang members are convicted and imprisoned as today. If recruitment was stopped, gang strength would drop sharply and violence would decrease over the same period of time.
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