(Finance) – “Central banks have done most of the way to raise rates. The ECB has raised rates by 200 basis points and should still raise them, we hope, by only another percentage point. Inflation is more moderate and therefore, the end of the rate hike cycle will contribute to the cyclical recovery in the second half of 2023”. This is what the CEO of Intesa Sanpaolo, Charles Messinain a video message broadcast at the conference Lombardy 2030.
Messina noted that “the tensions on the prices of subjects first and ofpower they are starting to shrink. Inflation in the US is starting to fall and this trend will arrive, with a few months of delay, also in Europe and in Italy”. According to the banker, these are “two positive factors that reinforce the forecast that we are moving towards a progressive normalization “. “The economic situation presents strong elements uncertainty, the global economy has entered an interlocutory phase, world GDP is expected to slow down to 2% in 2023, but all the major forecasting centers point to a recovery in 2024, which will allow for a return to growth rates close to 3% . It is a component that should not be forgotten in any reflection we make for our future, ”she stressed.
“For Italy, I am strongly convinced that i fundamental cheap are solid and that they can represent the starting point for a revival of growth”. “We expect a closure equal to or greater than 3% of GDP growth in 2022: a decidedly more brilliant result than expected in the aftermath of the outbreak of the emergency in Ukraine“. “In the last three years, economic activity has grown in Italy more than in other European countries with a variation compared to pre-pandemic levels of 1.8% against 1.1% in France and 0.2% in the Germany,” he added.
“Italy, obviously, is not immune from a crisis of the contraction of economic activity between the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, but it will eventually be a recession short-lived followed by a recovery in GDP starting next spring“, assured Messina. “After 0.6% next year, there will be a recovery in speed to reach 1.5-2% in 2024,” he added.