The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their ten partners in the OPEC+ agreement, including Russia, are meeting this Wednesday, August 3 in Vienna. The issue is whether or not to increase production quotas in a context of soaring hydrocarbon prices. But despite American pressure to do so, analysts do not expect a significant increase from the oil cartel.
In 2020, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic and faced with the collapse of global demand and therefore prices, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, had reached an agreement: to sharply reduce production to raise prices.
Prices eventually recovered and the following year producers gradually reopened their floodgates as demand returned to pre-crisis levels. Except that today, these producers are struggling to fill the quotas they have set. According to the International Energy Agency, 2.8 billion barrels are missing.
In question, there are producing countries in the grip of political crises or a chronic lack of investment. Without forgetting the Russian production hampered by the sanctions in connection with the invasion of Ukraine. US President Joe Biden, visiting Jeddah, pleaded for an increase in Saudi production to make up for the shortfall and relieve the global economy. In the current context of tension between Russia and the West, will the alliance hear its calls?
Be that as it may, even if a significant increase is announced for September, the producing countries will still have to be able to physically respond to it.
►Also listen: Oil: OPEC + makes a symbolic gesture