To harm its Western adversaries in Africa, the Kremlin’s recipe can be summed up in three words: profit from chaos. In the Comoros archipelago, in the midst of a migration crisis, the ingredients are in place. The 101st French department, Mayotte (one of the four islands of the Comoros; the only French one) experiences endemic poverty and delinquency, partly linked to the large influx of migrants from neighboring islands. On April 24, the French government launched the “Wuambushu” operation there, aimed at deporting 300 migrants a day.
But the intervention turned into a fiasco. Not only did justice suspend the operation to evacuate a slum supposed to flush out the illegals, but, moreover, the Comoros refused the docking of the first charter boats of expelled people. And for good reason ! Their authorities claim sovereignty over Mayotte; they therefore consider that the Comorians are not in an irregular situation there. Mayotte has been separated from its three neighbors since the independence referendum organized by Paris in 1974. At the time, France chose – in defiance of international law – to count the results island by island in order to keep Mayotte, the only one to want remain in the French fold. Fifty years later, the “Mahorese question” remains burning.
Mayotte and the Comoros
© / afp.com/Sophie RAMIS
Russia is also eyeing Mozambique
Such an imbroglio could only arouse the interest of Moscow, quick to denounce French “neocolonialism”. Even before the start of the “Wuambushu” operation, the parade of Russian diplomats in the Comorian capital, Moroni, began. Visiting on April 4, Ambassador to Madagascar Andrey Andreev was followed on April 26 by Oleg Ozerov, in charge of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum. “Since the annexation of Crimea, the Russians have supported the return of Mayotte to the Comoros, like that of the Scattered Islands to Madagascar, explains Christiane Rafidinarivo, political scientist associated with Cevipof. In both cases, Russia sees the influence of France on these islands as the consequence of unfinished decolonization. And does not hesitate to compare them to Crimea, arbitrarily separated from Russian territory according to Moscow.”
Comoros and the Scattered Islands are located in the heart of the strategic Mozambique Channel. Separating Madagascar from Africa, this arm of the sea is both a busy commercial passage and a space coveted for its natural resources. In the region, Moscow first targeted Madagascar. In 2018, “the red island” is the target of a vast influence operation, ahead of the presidential election. Organization of demonstrations, distribution of cash, disinformation on social networks for the benefit of certain candidates: “This is one of Russia’s most obvious attempts at electoral interference”, wrote in 2019 the New York Times, which reveals the matter. Under the coconut trees, the Russian relays are already active for the next presidential election, at the end of 2023. “The candidate Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko has known links with Russia, notes economist Olivier Vallée, a fine connoisseur of the region. with the boss of the International Judo Federation Marius Vizer, a close friend of Vladimir Putin, with whom he runs a mining company on the island.
In Madagascar as in the Comoros, Russian influence has not yet produced one of the desired effects: support for the UN on the war in Ukraine. But Moscow’s strategy aims far. Near Madagascar, Russia is also eyeing Mozambique, a state familiar to KGB veterans, who supported the war of independence there (1964-1975). In addition to the huge gas field discovered in 2012 off its coast, the country is full of minerals (coal, aluminum, rubies). However, Maputo has been fighting for years against an Islamist insurgency. The ideal panorama for Wagner’s mercenaries, accustomed to bartering their security services for mining concessions. However, the affair failed: the Russian “dogs of war” suffered considerable losses there and retreated. A failure of Wagner unprecedented in Africa. Proof that it will still take more than lawless tough guys for Moscow to regain a foothold in the region.