The scene is set for this Sunday, July 7. More than 200 withdrawals had been recorded by AFP on Tuesday, July 2 at 6 p.m., at the time of the closing of applications for the second round. Enough to significantly reduce the number of three-way races, in an attempt to form a “republican front” against a National Rally on the verge of an absolute majority. L’Express takes stock of the situation in the second round of these early legislative elections, five days before the vote.
Triangulars divided by three
On the evening of the first round, there were nearly 306 three-way races, and even five four-way races. But while since then, the announcements of withdrawals have been coming thick and fast, they will ultimately be much fewer in number. Thus, according to the provisional count by AFP this Tuesday at 6 p.m., the deadline for submitting candidacies, there should ultimately be only 107 three-way races and two four-way races this Sunday. On the contrary, 392 constituencies will return to traditional situations, many of them pitting a candidate from the National Rally against one of all the other parties.
More than 210 withdrawals to block the RN
According to an AFP count, 214 candidates ultimately decided to withdraw their candidacy, most of them coming third in a constituency where the RN was leading. Among them, 127 members of the left-wing New Popular Front chose to withdraw, as well as 81 candidates from the Macronist coalition Ensemble pour la République. To which are added three deputies attached to the right-wing party Les Républicains and an independent overseas elected official.
Often without enthusiasm, the withdrawals of Macronist or left-wing candidates take place in the overwhelming majority of constituencies where at least three candidates were qualified and where the Le Pen party is in a position to win. As in Haute-Garonne or in Hérault, where ministers Dominique Faure and Patricia Mirallès ended up giving up.
“Withdrawals do not mean rallies,” repeated Gabriel Attal, on a trip to Eure-et-Loir on Tuesday, reaffirming that there was no question of “a coalition, an alliance” with La France Insoumise.
In addition, the National Rally has also announced two withdrawals: Sylvie Jouart has withdrawn in the 2nd constituency of Haute-Corse, in favor of a diverse right-wing candidate. The RN candidate Ludivine Daoudi, from the 1st constituency of Calvados, has decided to withdraw her candidacy following the publication of a photo of her wearing a Nazi army cap, Philippe Chapron, RN departmental delegate, said on France Bleu on Tuesday morning.
Balances upset in these key constituencies
As a result of these massive withdrawals, several heavyweights who got off to a bad start last Sunday could well make up for lost time in the second round. This is particularly the case for Elisabeth Borne in Calvados, for whom the LFI candidate withdrew, despite the left’s strong opposition to the former Prime Minister on pension and immigration reforms.
In the North, the withdrawal of the rebellious candidate in Gérald Darmanin’s constituency should also ensure his re-election, while the Minister of the Interior only had a little less than two points ahead of his RN competitor after the first round.
In the other direction, five ministers also withdrew to block the RN: Fadila Khattabi, Marie Guévenoux, Sabrina Agresti-Roubache, Dominique Faure and Patricia Mirallès, despite a lack of clarity until Tuesday for the latter two. In the Macronist camp, some also went against the instructions of their leaders. This is notably the case of a Horizons candidate in Seine-Maritime, Laurent Bonnaterre. Despite the “neither RN nor LFI” advocated by Édouard Philippe, he chose to withdraw, thus offering the possibility to an outgoing LFI MP Alma Dufour to keep her seat.
François Ruffin should also benefit from the withdrawal of the Macronist candidate in the Somme, while he has a seven-point deficit to make up against an RN candidate. For the former head of LR deputies Olivier Marleix, the withdrawal of the socialist candidate Nadia Faveris, whom he had only beaten by 153 votes in the first round, will be crucial if he intends to be re-elected against the National Rally candidate, who beat him by 12 points in the first round.
There are a few exceptions, such as Renaissance Loïc Signor, who is holding on to the constituency of Insoumis Louis Boyard, a deputy “against the Republic” according to the presidential party. And a few particularities are emerging, such as in Paris, where Place Publique-New Popular Front candidate Théa Foudrinier withdrew in favor of Macronist Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet, who will face… an LR candidate. Far from these national equations, in Paris, the incumbent Renaissance and dissident candidate Gilles Le Gendre withdrew and is calling for a vote for the left against the Macronist candidate pushed by Rachida Dati.
The RN in difficulty?
These withdrawals against the National Rally will inevitably have consequences on the results of the party in the flame this Sunday, and could swing many constituencies in favour of the candidates of the New Popular Front or the presidential camp… provided that the voters follow at the ballot boxes.
Enough to potentially deprive Jordan Bardella of an absolute majority, even though he has repeated in recent weeks that he would refuse the post of Prime Minister if he did not have the latter, namely 289 deputies. The avowed candidate for Matignon has also denounced “alliances of dishonor” and called on voters to grant him this majority of deputies “in the face of the existential threat to the French nation” that, according to him, the New Popular Front represents.
Consequence: the RN has already started to go back on its assertions. Thus, if the RN were to come close to this absolute majority, with “for example 270 deputies”, according to Marine Le Pen, she indicated that her party would seek to attract “deputies for example various right, various left, LR, who have expressed in the past a proximity with us”.