On Thursday, Russian forces announced that they had taken control of the entire city center of Mariupol.
The fighting continues fiercely in Mariupol.
Russian forces said on Thursday they had taken control of the entire city center of Mariupol. On the other hand, Ukrainian troops said they had recaptured the port in the southwestern part of Mariupol. The US incubator talks about it Institute for the Study of War (switch to another service) (ISW) Based on data from the Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novost and the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army.
ISW has so far been unable to confirm the information.
In any case, Ukrainian troops are expected to lose Mariupol in the coming days. In addition to ISW, the head of the Department of Military Skills at the National Defense College Petteri Kajanmaa.
– Although I would have expected the defense of Mariupol’s defense to break before, they have persevered in the fighting, Chief Artist of the National Defense College Jarmo Mattila says to over the phone.
Russia was not preparing for an urban war
Russia’s progress in Mariupol has been slowed down by the same mistake as elsewhere in Ukraine – it set out to occupy the city ill-prepared. This is the assessment of the former Chief of Intelligence of the General Staff of the Defense Forces, Major General (evp) Pekka Toveri.
– Russia does not have any expertise or troops trained in the settlement center battle in Mariupol, Toveri estimates by phone.
Civil warfare is very consuming. Troops must make their way forward block by block and block of flats at a time. The operating environment is constantly changing. Opponents have to face each other at close range, which, according to Tover, requires good combat skills from individual soldiers. Shards cause a lot of injuries.
It is essential to proceed systematically by dividing the opposing forces into small blocks.
– There have been some incompetent attacks from different directions without a clear focus, Toveri says.
– The blatant firing of the city has made it more difficult for Russia to proceed on its own due to the collapsing houses on the street, among other things. Movement of the foot is slow.
Ukrainian troops have a home field advantage, Mattila and Toveri say. Among other things, Ukraine’s team leaders are able to make more independent decisions.
Ukraine is fighting for the last man
Ukraine will inevitably lose control of Mariupol, Mattila and Toveri estimate.
The recapture of Mariupol would require a counterattack and the severance of ties with Russia by thousands of soldiers. According to experts, Russia is gathering troops from the Kiev area for a possible major attack on eastern Ukraine. Ukraine must prepare for this.
The continuation of Ukraine’s resistance depends on how long it has had food, ammunition, fuel and manpower.
According to a comrade, Russia has not yet fully succeeded in preventing the maintenance of Ukrainian troops, apparently by night helicopter transportation. If there is enough material, the defense could take several more weeks, but if no replenishments are available, the defense will quickly run out.
If, according to Tover, Russian forces have succeeded in capturing the center of Mariupol and thus dividing the Ukrainian forces into two blocks, it would mean the beginning of the end for Ukraine’s defense.
However, the continuation of the resistance in Mariupol is relevant to the war situation as a whole.
– The troops that Russia would desperately need elsewhere are tied to Mariupol, Mattila says.
According to a comrade, every day that Ukraine continues its resistance weakens Russia’s position.
– Russia has a strong need for a significant military victory. It has failed in Kiev and Kharkov. Now it hopes for such a profit from Mariupol.