Marion Maréchal, the ecologists, Bellamy… This error of analysis which was fatal to them – L’Express

Marion Marechal the ecologists Bellamy… This error of analysis which

A France which tends more to the right on issues such as immigration, but which is in no way more conservative in terms of values. Here is one of the confirmations from these European elections. The triumph of Jordan Bardella’s RN (32% of the votes according to Ifop estimates), contrasts with the disappointing scores of the Reconquête (5.3%) and LR (7%) lists led respectively by Marion Maréchal and François-Xavier Bellamy. Marshal and Bellamy? Unlike Bardella, two conservative figures, two affirmed Catholics who attended private schools in the western suburbs, and firmly opposed to equal marriage.

During the previous election in 2019, François-Xavier Bellamy had undoubtedly paid for his statements regarding the cessation of the treatments provided to Vincent Lambert, in a vegetative state since a road accident, making it known that there is no of “end of life unworthy of living”. Since then, the MEP has tried to overcome this image of “traditional Catholic”, but pleaded in the JDD for the ban on GPA “on a global scale” or said he was opposed to the registration of IVG in texts, ensuring that he would have voted “no” to its inclusion in the French Constitution if he had been a national parliamentarian. Marion Maréchal adopted a more thunderous tone. She caused controversy by tweeting “Where’s the mom?” after the announcement of the birth by GPA of the twin daughters of stylist Simon Porte Jacquemus and her husband Marco Maestri. During the campaign, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s granddaughter also denounced “a form of trivialization of abortion” or refused to pay tribute to Robert Badinter, who died in February.

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However, studies show that more than nine out of ten French people are in favor of euthanasia, and two out of three are in favor of including abortion in the Constitution. There are also more and more of them defending GPA (59% according to a CSA survey for Europe 1, CNews and JDD). But above all, these societal questions are far from representing a priority in a country where more than half of 18-59 year olds say they have no religion, with a spectacular fall in Catholicism.

Purchasing power, immigration and health

The recent Ipsos survey for Cevipof, the Jean Jaurès foundation, the Institut Montaigne and Le Monde showed that purchasing power was the determining subject (47%) in the choice of vote of the French for these European elections, followed by immigration (38%), the health system (29%) and environmental protection (26%). Another Ifop-Fiducial survey for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio confirmed this quarter. For Jérôme Fourquet, director of the Opinion and Corporate Strategies department at Ifop, it is the ability to talk about social issues rather than societal issues which marks the main difference between Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen on the one hand. , and Marion Maréchal and Eric Zemmour on the other.

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“Like the RN, Reconquête highlights the themes of immigration and insecurity, the two being linked in their head” observes the author of France after: Political table (Threshold). “But the social aspect is not really covered by Reconquête. The famous Colombe (sixagenarian in the RSA who was present at the RN meeting in Perpignan, and whose video on her “difficulty in living” went viral, Editor’s note) cannot vote for this party. The Reconquest vote takes place in the beautiful neighborhoods, but is marginal in peripheral France and the former industrial areas.”

As for François-Xavier Bellamy’s modest score, Jérôme Fourquet also sees structural causes, with LR’s grip between “a part of their electorate which looks towards Darmanin, Le Maire, Philippe, pillars of the government majority ” and on the other side “those who left for the RN or for Reconquête”. “Like Glucksmann on the left, Bellamy has the image of an outgoing European parliamentarian invested in his mandate, which is rarely the case. There is a certain mastery of the organizations on European issues. But the Macronists have moved away from their right, reducing the space of the Republicans. At the same time, the latter were not able to benefit from the ultra-right radicalization of Bardella, who did not follow a trajectory similar to that of the Insoumis on the other side of. the political spectrum” underlines the pollster.

The boomerang of political MeToo

If societal issues do not benefit conservatives, they do not necessarily make progressives on the left more successful. This is evidenced by the heavy failure of EELV (5.4% according to Ifop), while the European vote is traditionally favorable to environmentalists (13.5% in 2019, more than 16% in 2009). Energy crisis, inflation, agricultural revolt… The context is certainly less favorable to the environmental issue, which has fallen down the list of voters’ concerns according to a recent Eurobarometer survey. But we can also see the impasses of a party, which, under the leadership of Sandrine Rousseau in particular, wanted to be at the forefront on the issue of feminism and sexist violence, but took the political MeToo head on. Accused of “psychological violence” by his ex-partner (the feminist activist Anaïs Leleux), the deputy and former national secretary Julien Bayou resigned from EELV in the middle of the campaign, denouncing “disloyal relentlessness”.

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“As for environmentalists, people have retained dogmatic radicalism from recent months, whether on MeToo, Sainte-Soline, attacks on works of art with ketchup or soup, steak, the car… C “It’s a punitive ecology that distances us from a more positive and consensual ecology”, confirms Jérôme Fourquet. “But, to their credit, purchasing power has become priority number 1. Food products have experienced inflation of more than 20% for three years. We are also seeing the organic market collapse. This is not specific to France. Everywhere in Europe, environmentalists are marking time.”

The score of the list led by Marie Toussaint contrasts with that of Raphaël Glucksmann. “The PS was initially in a worse situation than LR, but they found an incarnation. However, we must keep in mind that Glucksmann’s score is not that of Olivier Faure…” warns Jérôme Fourquet. For the political scientist, the MEP and leader of the Place publique movement has in any case been able to gain ground both on his right, on the side of Macronist voters, by having a strong speech in favor of Ukraine, and on his left, in benefiting from the radicalization of Ecologists and Rebels. “With vehement positions taken after October 7 or the bazaar at the National Assembly, LFI and EELV moved to the left, freeing up space for Glucksmann.”