Ineligible for the 2027 presidential election? The scenario is on the table as the trial opens this Monday, September 30. Marine Le Pen claims to have “violated no rules”.
From this Monday, September 30,Marine Le Pen, president of the National Rally (RN) until 2021, as well as 9 people elected to the European Parliament, 12 parliamentary assistants and 4 party collaborators are on trial by the Paris Criminal Court for embezzlement of public funds and complicity in embezzlement of public funds. They are accused of having, between 2004 and 2016, used funds allocated by the European Parliament to MEPs from the far-right party to finance the operation of the RN. The damage is estimated at nearly 7 million euros. The trial is expected to last two months.
At the same time, the president of the RN group in the National Assembly is in a good position three years before the presidential election, according to an OpinionWay study carried out between September 11 and 12, not published but revealed by Challenges. Marine Le Pen comes out on top in voting intentions in all the scenarios tested and in which she appears. Depending on the opponents placed opposite, Edouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal or both, she is credited with 34 to 40% of the voting intentions in the first round.
However, there is a dark side to the picture: the trial of the RN parliamentary assistants affair which promises to be decisive for the political future of Marine Le Pen. In this case, Marine Le Pen could simply lose her civil rights, as indicated in thearticle 432-17 of the Penal Code. Threatened with ineligibility for the next presidential election, the scenario according to which Marine Le Pen could not run does exist. If the latter is sentenced to a suspended sentence, nothing will prevent her from running. On the other hand, a firm sentence, or even a sentence with provisional execution, would destroy his hopes. This Monday, January 30, upon her arrival at the Paris judicial court, Marine Le Pen affirmed that her political party had “violated no political or regulatory rule of the European Parliament”. The latter says she is “not unhappy” that the trial lasts two months, which should give her “time to develop” her “extremely solid” arguments. Comments collected by France Info.
The threat of ineligibility for 2027
If convicted, Marine Le Pen faces up to ten years in prison and a fine of one million euros, all accompanied by a penalty of ineligibility of up to five years in accordance with article 432-17 of the Penal Code. But since the figure of the party with the flame exercised a public elective mandate at the time of the events, the penalty of ineligibility can go up to ten years as provided for article 131-26-1 of the Penal Code. An ineligibility sentence of more than three years would prevent Marine Le Pen from running in the 2027 presidential election, but the candidate who has already participated in this election three times has not given up on another attempt. The worst scenario would even lead to Marine Le Pen being ineligible with provisional execution. However, “normally, this type of sentence is more for those who have committed chain frauds”, specifies Jean-Marie Brigant,Lecturer in private law at the University of Le Mans, in the columns ofActu.fr.
Marine Le Pen would, however, have solutions to avoid being ineligible at the end of the trial in the event of conviction. She could appeal the decision, then appeal to cassation if necessary. The sentences imposed would then be suspended, including the sentence of ineligibility, until the final decision. Note that a sentence of ineligibility may be accompanied by a “suspended sentence” and therefore not be effective. It can also, conversely, become a deprivation of civil rights accompanied by provisional execution, which would make the sentence applicable despite the possibility of appeal.
Marine Le Pen’s involvement must be proven
Marine Le Pen, who chaired the RN, which was called National Front (FN) until 2018, from 2011 to 2021, is implicated, because she is suspected of having participated in the establishment of a fraudulent system of fictitious jobs concerning the parliamentary assistants of MEPs from his party. The facts judged took place between 2004 and 2016, therefore partly under the presidency of the member for Hénin-Beaumont. Investigation elements and testimonies indicate that Marine Le Pen was aware of the system and oversaw it, this is the case of the declarations of former MEPs Aymeric Chauprade, who has since withdrawn, and Sophie Montel or even of the former parliamentary assistant to elected officials RN Nicolas Franchinard contacted by Médiapart.
Exchanges of emails, including Marine Le Pen’s office, on instructions concerning the use of funding allocated by the European Parliament to each elected official consulted by Médiapart, show that the instructions given to MEPs – namely to recruit a single assistant to work on parliamentary projects and to recruit others to work on other tasks, notably for the benefit of the party – came from the management, and therefore probably by Marine Le Pen. But the personal and direct involvement of Marine Le Pen will have to be proven. François Bayrou, the president of MoDem, tried in a similar case in February 2024, was acquitted “with the benefit of the doubt” due to insufficient evidence attesting to his involvement.
Marine Le Pen has always contested any fraudulent system of fictitious employment. During hearings as part of the investigation, she said: “It was not me who made the decisions and imposed this on deputies and employees.” As for other documents such as tables demonstrating the centralized management of parliamentary funding by the treasurer of the FN, she absolved herself of all responsibilities: “I would not say that I supervised this management rather than that I was informed of it.”
But if Marine Le Pen admits to having been aware of the management system, she is not specifically involved in the aforementioned email exchanges since all the exchanges went through her office according to the testimony of Nicolas Franchinard. “She is aware of everything but appears nowhere. There is a desire to keep her informed, but I have never received and I think that no one has ever received direct instructions from Marine Le Pen” he declared to Médiapart adding however that “when we receive an email from the director of the party president’s office, to [les assistants parlementaires] it’s as if the leader himself is writing to us.”