In the aftermath of a tough debate, where the two finalists in the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, clashed over the field of ideas, RFI interviewed Adrien Broche, opinion consultant at the research and polling firm Viavoice. Will the April 20 televised debate change anything about voters’ choices?
RFI: Is there a winner at the end of this debate?
Adrian Brooch : This is a bit of a difficult question to answer. I think you had to watch this debate and everyone did so, with the 2017 debate in mind.
We had to remember the debate of five years ago and make the comparison…
Exactly. It’s a little bit of the difficulty there was for both of them, and obviously especially for Marine Le Pen. It is clear that from this point of view, Marine Le Pen found it difficult to break away from it. She was almost haunted at times by this 2017 debate, both on the merits with a number of lawsuits. It is this trial of incompetence obviously that has been done to her a lot since 2017, which she has not completely settled visibly. And on the form, since she constantly gave the impression of being restrained, of holding back her blows if we follow the metaphor of the boxing match which let Emmanuel Macron take the place, take the space, and suddenly occupy this debate. So, from that point of view, I think we can say that Emmanuel Macron has taken the advantage.
Indeed, we saw her almost silent at times. The candidate who cashed, suffered the attacks. It was very clear about ties with Russia and ties with Russian banks…
Absolutely. She almost got pushed into the ropes, sometimes without repartee or the repartee fell a little bit flat. Emmanuel Macron, himself, even in his postures, very deep in his chair, which recalled the great debates between Giscard d’Estaing and François Mitterrand …. Which is no longer so much the way in political communication that we have to apprehend the debates today. But he played from that position.
A physical attitude that has been very noted on social networks. We talked about arrogance, smugness. Can all this play tricks on Emmanuel Macron?
The debates between the two rounds are all the same above all that, it’s a way of playing on your image traits. Indeed, you were talking about arrogance. At Viavoice, we carried out a study this weekend on precisely the characteristic traits. What emerged from this study in a few words: Emmanuel Macron appeared more presidential, more competent, more democratic, less worrying, but less honest and less close to the French than Marine Le Pen. If we take one by one, but to go very quickly, can these different features of the image change? Presidential, obviously Emmanuel Macron will remain so, even if it means having overplayed a little bit of a kind of arrogance; competent too, no worries from that point of view; Democrat, I think the gap was small but he will keep it; less worrying, about the same; on the honesty and proximity of the French, I think that’s where it can be played. Has Emmanuel Macron managed to catch up on this proximity to the French that he has compared to Marine Le Pen. In any case, I think it was a goal for him. We saw it in particular in the way he had of reversing a certain number of things, of talking about the set to journalists, and to Marine Le Pen. We four. We four are in this situation.
We four are privileged…
Exactly, the four of us are privileged. So, in a way, it’s me who knows this elite people reality best. In any case, I assume it. And that was also extremely skilful and I don’t think Marine Le Pen totally succeeded in getting out of this trap that was set for her.
There was also perhaps a discrepancy, we who all watched the debate, between the figures put forward by Emmanuel Macron, the figures which were supposed to be the real and the perception of the real, and the feeling that seemed to defend on his side Marine Le Pen ?
Yes quite. Again, two things. First, the issue of jurisdiction. Once again, on this issue of figures, Emmanuel Macron knows that this is his strong point. Marine Le Pen knows that this is her weak point. And both press on it. Emmanuel Macron obviously knows that by going into this field, he will always have a sort of ascendancy over Marie Le Pen out of habit, but also perhaps through his personal qualities which makes him more comfortable. generally with this. And Marine Le Pen is still fighting, even if it means actually opposing and simply making mistakes, even if it means being approximate on a figure. The problem is that when it happens once, it’s not that much of a concern. But when it happens several times, and again, she does not get out of this face-to-face and this almost professorial space that Emmanuel Macron imposes on her, that can pose a problem for her. Effectively, as you said, there is this second aspect, there is the aspect of the real, the aspect of perception of the real-reality. There too, there was a bias on the part of Emmanuel Macron, which was a kind of reversal of the burden of the balance sheet or else also sending Marine Le Pen back to her votes, of reversing the burden of reality: “ It is I who know reality, I have known it for five years, I have made more than 600 trips “. Indeed, we also played on that and I think he had anticipated these angles well.
Does this debate change anything at the end of the vote? According to the polls: victory for Emmanuel Macron with 54 to 56% of the vote on Sunday April 24?
In general, does a debate change anything? Usually quite a bit. What impact does a debate between rounds have in general? It crystallizes electoral positions that were already anticipated. It convinces the convinced. In reality, quite a few people hesitate between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. On the other hand, for people who are rather hesitant, undecided between abstention, the blank vote, or one of the two candidates, will this bring these candidates to the polls? It’s quite difficult to say. Personally, I don’t necessarily think so.
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