We are now living in the moment of the far right in Europe.
The most recent wave of the far-right was seen in Holland, when Geert Wilders the freedom party PVV won the parliamentary elections held in November by an overwhelming margin of 24 percent.
More political gigs are on the way.
For example, in Belgium and Austria, far-right parties are at the top of the polls, and both countries will vote for a new parliament this year.
The map below shows how popular the parties have become across Europe.
However, the far-right’s momentum or moment is not based only on election and poll success. I’ve seen those jerks before.
The researcher tells about an even more significant change:
– What is new is how strongly the far-right has become mainstream in our minds, and the fact that voters are increasingly ready to accept far-right parties in the government, says Daphne Halikiopoulou.
Halikiopoulou is a professor of political studies at the University of York in England, specializing in the far right. According to him, the key factor explaining the rise of the far-right is its normalization.
Dutch Geert Wilders was moved in December when his party colleague was voted speaker of the Dutch parliament.
Normalization means that far-right parties and their goals seem ordinary to more and more people, when they were perceived as radical even before.
It also affects other parties. In more and more countries, other parties are ready to cooperate with far-right parties, when even before they were considered too radical.
The German line is already starting to look like an exception. No party in the German Bundestag agrees to cooperate with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. However, AfD’s support is so high that it becomes increasingly difficult to isolate the party.
But why is this change in mindset happening right now?
A self-feeding cycle
In recent years, the moods of Europeans have been colored by several overlapping crises, such as the pandemic, climate change, inflation and Russia’s war of aggression.
Crises feed feelings of insecurity and uncertainty. And according to Halikiopoulou, the far-right parties have managed to address these feelings skillfully.
– They have gathered behind them a wider group of dissatisfied voters than before, says Halikiopoulou.
At the same time, far-right parties in several countries have tried to change their image to be more moderate and to detach themselves from racist labels.
There was an uproar in Italy when a group of neo-fascists gave the fascist salute as an epiphany at the annual commemoration.
The country’s far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has tried to distance herself from extremist movements.
This has also happened, for example, in the Netherlands, where the far-right leader Wilders, who is known to be flamboyant, appeared conciliatory during and after the elections.
The message would hardly have gotten across without the help of other parties. During the elections, the chairman of the centre-right party VVD Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius stated that he is ready to cooperate with Wilders.
The announcement made the previously politically rejected Wilders a viable option for voters. Normal.
Halikiopoulou describes the normalization of the far right as a self-feeding cycle.
When the far-right succeeds in elections and opinion polls, other parties start imitating the far-right and, for example, demand restrictions on immigration. It makes far-right election themes more acceptable and brings them even more strongly into the public debate.
– The far-right has managed to define what is being talked about, and other parties have unfortunately followed suit.
In this video, election night moods from the Netherlands from November have been collected:
This phenomenon was also visible in the Dutch elections, where the center-right party VVD made limiting immigration a top issue. Instead of the light version, the Dutch chose the original opponent of immigration, i.e. Wilders.
Now Wilders is working on a new right-wing government for Holland.
“The talk has turned to the costs of climate action”
The momentum of the far-right will also determine the European election debates in the spring, estimates the researcher of the Foreign Policy Institute Manuel Müller.
It also colors the discussion about climate change.
– When earlier there was talk about the urgency of climate action, now the talk has turned to the costs of climate action, says Müller.
A recent example of this is the farmers’ protests in Germany in January.
They started when the German government decided to cut fuel subsidies for farmers.
“When farmers die, the whole country dies”, states the protest sign.
The protests have been incited by the AfD party, whose support is at a record high.
Along with immigration, opposition to climate action has become a theme that unites Europe’s disparate far-right parties, says Müller.
In the spring European elections, far-right parties are predicted to get about a quarter of the seats in the EU Parliament. It would be a historically good election result, but it would not yet overthrow the majority of the other parties in the parliament.
The key is whether other groups in the EU Parliament want to cooperate with the far-right.
In Germany, there has been a fierce protest against the AfD in recent days, and calls have been made to ban the party due to its far-right connections.
“Shut up AfD,” read a protester’s sign in Berlin on Monday.
According to Müller, desires could be found in the center-right faction, which aims to promote a less ambitious climate policy than the left and the Greens.
In the European Parliament, however, only those far-right parties that have built a more moderate image of themselves and do not pander to Russia are suitable partners for the center-right, Müller estimates.
But have far-right parties really become more moderate?
Scientists don’t believe that.
– After coming to power, many of these parties have enacted laws that weaken democratic institutions. I consider them a serious threat to democracy, says Halikiopoulou.
He mentions, for example, the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbánwhich has systematically weakened the central institutions of liberal democracy, such as free media and an independent judiciary.
Müller, on the other hand, mentions Italy’s far-right prime minister by Giorgia Meloni.
Previously considered a radical, Meloni has built a moderate image of himself as prime minister, and he has been praised in the EU for his ability to cooperate.
At the same time, Meloni’s government has pushed for a significant reform of the constitution, which would centralize power to the prime minister in an unprecedented way.
The reform has been strongly criticized. For example Politico magazine in an opinion piece published, it was compared to the constitutional reform proposed by Italy’s fascist dictator Benito Mussolini to power in 1923.
However, Meloni’s politics have bitten the voters. His party’s support has only grown in government responsibility.
Even in scandals, the parties that have become embroiled in scandals return to the top
The old adage that support for right-wing populists melts when they come to power doesn’t seem to be true.
In Finland, the government responsibility slightly decreased the support of basic Finns, but the same kind of collapse as in the party’s previous government campaign has not happened, at least not yet.
Basic Finns belong to Orpo’s right-wing government. In the photo, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (right) and Finance Minister Riikka Purra (left).
In Sweden, the support of the Sweden Democrats, who act as the government’s support party, has even improved after the elections.
Of course there have been losses. In Poland, the Law and Justice party lost the elections in October.
According to Halikiopoulou, however, the key thing is that the parties will not disappear anywhere, even if they suffer an election loss as a result of government responsibility.
For example, the Freedom Party of Austria, embroiled in numerous scandals, has suffered from a drop in support a few years ago to the top of opinion polls.
– The far-right parties now have momentum, and that is why they are pushing back to the top, says Halikiopoulou.