The results of the 2024 legislative elections will determine the new political balance of power in France. Will the far right, the union of the left and the presidential majority win or lose constituencies and therefore elected officials?
French political life is moving towards an affirmed tripartism with the early legislative elections of 2024. Three colors should therefore prevail over the overwhelming majority of the country once the result of the election is revealed on Sunday June 30: that of the far right , that of the union of the left under the banner of the New Popular Front and that of the presidential majority of Emmanuel Macron. These colors, or rather these major political orientations, will also share the seats in the National Assembly. But smart is he who predicts with certainty which political camp will be in the majority.
If among these three forces one will be ahead of the others after the legislative elections, it cannot be said that it will win the elections in half of the 577 French constituencies and consequently obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly. The results of the legislative polls on the contrary rely on a very relative majority, like that obtained by Emmanuel Macron’s camp in 2022, but much less consistent. So much so that it seems difficult for a political force to be able to form a new government without a coalition.
The National Rally, which established itself as the leading opposition party, for the first time in its history, during the last legislative elections, hopes to continue its meteoric progress by becoming the leading party in the chamber. The left, which came together to block the far right, wishes to become as strong again as it was before the arrival of Emmanuel Macron as president. While the majority is crossing their fingers to regain their majority.
The map below will be dressed in the colors of the party which will come out on top in each constituency during the two rounds of the 2024 legislative elections. Until then you can find the candidates running in your constituency.
What was the map of results for the legislative elections in 2022?
This map indicates the political force having won the last legislative elections in each of the 577 constituencies during the 2nd round of voting. The color of the constituency is that of the political party in the lead.
Political tripartism was already palpable during the 2022 legislative elections with the presence of the same dominant forces, but in different proportions. Emmanuel Macron’s camp managed to win the match without too much difficulty despite losing its absolute majority by obtaining 245 seats (172 for Renaissance, 48 for MoDem and 30 for Horizons), almost 100 less than in 2017 The left united under the old coalition that was the New Ecological and Social Popular Union (Nupes) had established itself as the leading opposition force with 131 elected officials (75 for LFI, 31 for the PS, 23 for the ecologists. and 22 for the Democratic and Republican left). But the RN was one of the big winners, obtaining 89 deputies and effectively becoming the leading opposition party.
Five years later, the balance of power has been reversed in the poll projections. A few days before the 2024 legislative elections, it is the RN which seems able to recover the greatest number of seats and color a large part of the map. The left coalition would follow, while the current presidential majority would become the third force in the National Assembly.
What did the legislative map look like in 2017?
These legislative elections followed Emmanuel Macron’s first victory in the presidential election and allowed the head of state to obtain a large majority in the National Assembly with 350 deputies, much more than the 289 necessary to ensure the half of the votes. The presidential majority then took everything away from the left, which swapped its status as a strong majority for that of third party in terms of number of seats: it fell from 341 elected to 73 (30 for the PS, 17 for LFI, 10 for the PCF and 16 for other left-wing elected officials).
At the time, it was the traditional right which was one of the other dominant forces in place of the far right. The Republican party had won 112 seats, but showed the first signs of losing momentum with 84 fewer elected officials. The National Rally, which was still called the National Front, was marginal in the National Assembly with 13 elected officials.