With the arrival of spring and sunny days, the Covid-19 epidemic seemed to be moving away from minds and concerns. Restrictions, such as the wearing of a compulsory mask in various places, will be further reduced from Monday March 14, as several European countries have already done. No more vaccination passes, almost total end to the wearing of the compulsory mask … On the program, “the lifting of almost all of the remaining measures from next Monday”, summarized Wednesday March 9 the spokesman of the government, Gabriel Attal, at the exit of the Council of Ministers.
Two years after the first confinement to deal with Covid-19, “we have been waiting for these advances for a very long time, the French have been waiting for them, they mark a decisive step”, he welcomed, when the restrictions had already been gradually eased in recent weeks in a context of declining epidemic.
The incidence rate is on the rise again
However, the epidemic is not over yet. Far from there. The WHO recalled this on Wednesday when its boss, Doctor Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, declared that “this pandemic is far from over and it will not be over anywhere if it is not over everywhere”. In Europe either, and especially in France, the virus has not said its last word. The Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, thus alerted Friday to an epidemic “rebound”. “We are currently seeing a rebound, in France, in the countries around us, that is to say that the Covid is no longer falling, it is even increasing, warned the minister during a trip to Isère. In view of the last figures of yesterday it is 20 % of increase”.
Several departments thus see their incidence rate increase sometimes by more than 20%, as is the case for the North, Côtes-d’Armor, Pas-de-Calais, Meuse or Calvados. The epidemic nevertheless continues to decline in other territories such as Savoie, Aude and even Dordogne.
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The national incidence rate reaches 546 cases per 100,000 people according to the latest figures published by Public health France Thursday, March 10 and some departments are well above the national average like the Ardennes (1013.06) or Finistère (1034.91).
The government is therefore withdrawing, because it had said that it would only end the vaccination pass if the epidemic stopped its progression. Another condition, mentioned several weeks ago by Olivier Véran, is also not fulfilled for the time being: the end of the vaccination pass was supposed to occur for less than 1,500 people hospitalized in intensive care with Covid-19. However, more than 1,800 patients were still in this situation this weekend.
The less vigilant French
This epidemic rebound is partly linked to a lesser vigilance of the French – logical when the end of the restrictions has been announced for weeks – and to the rise of “BA.2”, a particularly transmissible version of the Omicron variant, already very contagious in its previous incarnation.
But the government can rely on relatively optimistic forecasts from the Pasteur Institute, whose models serve as the basis for the scientific council which, in return, advises the State in the health crisis. Even in the worst case, the Institute estimates that the wave will be far from the peak observed at the start of the year at more than 300,000 cases per day.
As for the effects on hospitalizations, the most crucial issue, they would be limited by the fact that Omicron – in its BA.2 version as in its previous incarnation – appears much less dangerous than its predecessor Delta, which it now has almost completely supplanted.