Many wounded Russian soldiers die from lack of field care – Russia still fights as if it were the Soviet Union, says researcher

It is still too early to say whether the Ukrainian counteroffensive has significantly changed the course of the war. This is the opinion of the military experts interviewed by .

Ukraine launched a counterattack on Monday last week in the Kherson region in the southeastern parts of the country.

Ukraine has not made public the exact goals of the counterattack, and there is not much verified information about the progress of the fighting.

– Ukraine has informed very little about the battles, because they want to keep operational security high, says the teacher of strategy at the National Defense University Antti Pihlajamaa.

However, it is known that Ukraine has not seen major changes in the front lines in recent weeks.

According to Pihlajamaa, the border lines between the Ukrainian and Russian forces change a little from day to day in the Kherson region and elsewhere in Ukraine. Fighting continues in Donbas and Donetsk, among others.

No big conclusions can be drawn from small changes in the front lines of Ukraine.

At the moment, the focus of the war may not even be on territorial control, say the military experts interviewed by .

– Gaining control of land is inevitable at some point, but it is not the only measure of progress in the war, says Pihlajamaa.

– It could be that Ukraine is currently trying more to destroy Russia’s weapons depots and supply links than to recapture territories, the strategy teacher continues.

The same is said by a senior researcher at the British defense industry think tank RUSE Jack Watling.

– Now Ukraine has succeeded, for example, in disrupting the construction of the administration in the occupied territories. The so-called referendum on the annexation of Kherson to Russia was decided to be postponed, which can be considered a victory for Ukraine, Watling analyzed.

According to a researcher specializing in ground warfare, in recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have mainly carried out company-level attacks, in which no more than a hundred soldiers participate.

The Ukrainian troops have not attempted large, rapid territorial conquests, says Watling.

In battles that have lasted more than half a year, it has become more and more difficult to surprise the other party militarily. Both sides are constantly learning from each other’s moves, says senior researcher Watling from RUSE.

– The Russians now know how to coordinate their attacks even better. For example, they use Wagner mercenaries and conscripts more smoothly for various tasks, Watling commented.

Ukraine was a reacting party in the spring, but now they have taken the initiative to some extent, says Captain Pihlajamaa from the National Defense University.

– Ukraine is now even more able to choose where and when they fight. This gives a certain advantage, Pihlajamaa estimates.

Autumn will affect the ability of both sides to move troops.

In wet terrain, heavy vehicles do not move nimbly. The growing darkness continues to affect modern warfare as well. As the amount of daylight decreases, locating the enemy requires even more technical aids.

These changes will not come as a surprise to either party.

– Wet terrain makes it more difficult to attack. If Ukraine is to make a breakthrough, it should happen this month or next month, Watling says.

The ground warfare expert continues that, based on the footage, the Russian troops do not seem prepared to spend the winter in the field.

– Currently, the Russian troops will lose their ability to operate purely due to the cold. In settlement centers, they are able to take advantage of buildings to stay warm, Watling analysed.

Russia’s and Ukraine’s different ways of fighting wars reflect the countries’ different understanding of what victory in the Ukrainian war could look like.

– Ukraine wants a military victory on the battlefield and to take back the territories occupied by Russia, says Watling.

– Russia, on the other hand, believes that victory will come from prolonging the conflict. In Russian thinking, the key to victory is breaking the West’s support for Ukraine. If Russia succeeds in that, it will win, the researcher thinks.

The West’s support for Ukraine may break over time, but even Russia cannot wage war in Ukraine indefinitely.

– The fighting will of the Russian troops is already low. In the long term, it will inevitably be one of the factors affecting the course of the war, says strategy teacher Antti Pihlajamaa.

According to Watling, Russia’s basic problem is that the country goes to war as if it were the Soviet Union.

However, the difference is that today’s Russia does not have the almost unlimited military resources of its predecessor, such as manpower.

Watling says that he himself wondered how Russia continues to waste its troops. According to him, many wounded Russian soldiers ultimately die from the lack of field care and medicine.

In the ranks of Russia, not all soldiers who could be saved are saved.

– The Russian armed forces lack a “don’t leave a friend behind” mentality. I believe it is a deeply rooted cultural phenomenon, says Watling.