(Tiper Stock Exchange) – Monday at Palazzo Chigi there will be first meeting of the majority upon returning from vacation: a sort of brain storming to do the math and put all the options for the next one on the table Maneuver. Numbers that still don’t add up because 16 billion are missing to finance a financial loan on the lower end of the fork (25 billion instead of the 30 expected) postponing some action to next year.
At the moment, in fact, the extension of the tax wedge alone is worth 9 billion, then there’s the detaxation of productivity bonusesthe major resources promised for the healthcare and those for the renewal of public service contractsincluding school. Then there are the flag measures such as the Messina bridgestrongly desired by Salvini, and the implementation of the tax reformon which the government’s credibility depends.
As for funding, I’m available currently approx 9 billion divided as follows: 4-4.5 billion is the treasure generated by the April DEF and by the difference between the trend deficit forecast for next year (3.5%) and the programmed one (3.7%); about 1.5 billion they would come from one spending reviews of ministries; 3.5 billion of revenue would be made available by tax on bank profits and would be a one off. Then there are those who relaunch the traditional fight against evasionwhich according to the number one of the Revenue Agency, Ernesto Maria Ruffini, would be profitable 2.8 billion between now and 2025.
The economic forecasts leave no room for flexibility as regards GDP, since a worsening of the economy is expected for the last two quarters of 2023. so much so that the objective proposed by the DEF of a 2023 GDP of +0.9% would already be an important result.
The only option on the table to find fresh resources would seem to be that of resort to a greater deficiteven if the Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti it has been said several times contrary to use the deficit lever. Both because it would be considered a bad visiting card in the context of the negotiations for the reform of the Stability Pact and because of the negative impact it would have on the markets and on the spread. But from many quarters, within the majorityit is done pressing for a more or less marked rise. Two considerations support this hypothesis: this would be the last year of suspension of the old man Stability pact and the approach of European elections which make the European Commission more prudent in relations with a founding country like Italy.