The encounter between Macron and Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election is expected to be exciting. Macron has also described the election as a European vote.
The French presidential election will culminate in a second round on Sunday. Opposing are the sitting president, the central liberal Emmanuel Macron and the far right Marine Le Pen.
The race is getting tough, but the 44-year-old Macron is leaving for the second round as a pre-favorite. According to polls, he has about ten percentage points of his neck in Le Pen.
As a leader, Macron is charismatic, international, and reformist, but in his home country he is also considered elitist, distant, and central to Paris. He has been given the nickname “President of the Rich.”
We asked the experts what his re-election would mean, above all, for the EU, NATO and Finland.
Continuation of the EU’s Russia sanctions line
EU-backed Macron has said Sunday’s election is a vote for or against Europe.
Macron is known for its active presence in the EU.
Academy researcher at the University of Helsinki Timo Miettinen says Macron ‘s rest of the season has seen an emphasis on European self – sufficiency.
– Over the last couple of years, Macron’s strong support for the EU has begun to show that Europe should also defend its own interests in the global economy more strongly: its own industrial policy and European production more broadly.
France has also called for reforms to the EU’s economic policy and closer defense cooperation.
He is also the head of the Brussels office of the Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK) Kaisa Soro-Pesonen emphasizes the elimination of various dependencies in Macron’s EU goals.
Soro-Pesonen estimates that Macron has the ambition to remain in the history books as a major innovator or leader.
– He also wants to make Europe a geopolitical power alongside the USA and China.
Macron’s choice for the EU’s Russia sanctions line would also bring continuity.
– It seems that France is demanding an increasingly active line of sanctions. France is in a better position than, for example, Germany and Italy in that it has very strong own nuclear power generation and is not equally dependent on Russian gas supplies, Miettinen points out.
According to Soro-Pesonen, Macron’s election would also continue to unify the EU’s ranks, as has happened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Also read about Le Pen’s EU policy:
Macron described NATO as “brain dead,” but criticism has waned
Macron was shocked in 2019 when he described NATO as “brain dead” in a newspaper interview. He criticized, for example, the lack of coordination between the United States and other member states.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Macron’s criticism of NATO has subsided.
Macron has said the attack gave NATO an “electric shock” that clarifies the strategic role of the Defense Alliance.
Miettinen estimates that Macron has a realistic picture: in the current war situation, NATO’s role in the European security order is seen as important.
However, Macron believes that Europe should take greater responsibility for its own defense.
– A lot of steps have been taken in this area during the Macron era. For example, the so-called European Peace Facility has been set up, which was used in the first phase of the crisis in Ukraine. Through it, joint arms assistance was offered to Ukraine, Miettinen points out.
If Le Pen were elected president, there has been speculation as to whether it would be difficult for Finland to apply for NATO membership.
With Macron, this would hardly be a problem.
– The choice of Macron would certainly only strengthen Finland’s chances of joining NATO on a fast schedule. In general, it would improve the overall safety environment, because it would not cause changes to it, but on the contrary, the current line would deepen, says Soro-Pesonen of EK.
Finland and France are connected by the EU and nuclear power
The effects of the French presidential election on Finland are primarily visible through the EU.
– It is of paramount importance for Finland that the European Union and the economy remain strong. It is the best defense and security in this world situation, Soro-Pesonen says.
From Finland’s point of view, Macron’s choice would represent continuity to what the EU has done in recent years, says Miettinen.
In recent years, the EU has sought, for example, to step up its own defense cooperation, build a common picture and consolidate its ranks, coordinate a common sanctions policy and pursue an ambitious climate policy.
– Considering France’s ever-strengthening position in the EU, Finland’s bilateral relations with France will certainly continue to strengthen, Soro-Pesonen says.
Finland and France are also united, for example, by nuclear power, which neither country has given up. Macron wants more nuclear reactors in France.
– Now that we are trying to get rid of Russia’s fossil energy, the importance of nuclear power is growing. In the EU’s energy palette, it is certainly a topic where Finland and France will find a common tone, Soro-Pesonen estimates.
Macron will have to offer handshakes to citizens suffering from rising prices
Macron was elected president five years ago with a reformist program that sought to adjust the French public sector through various cuts.
Macron has not completely abandoned this line, says Miettinen.
– Alongside this, however, there have been more views emphasizing the interests of France’s own industry and investment policy. More about adjusting to investment is the line Macron has now sought to promote in domestic policy.
One of the key reforms Macron is trying to do is raise the retirement age from the current 62 years to 65 years.
– The French economy has done well, which is a clear advantage for Macron in this situation. However, he is clearly in the process of major economic reforms and will certainly need even more time to do so, Soro-Pesonen estimates.
Rising prices are also penalizing France. The main election theme is precisely the purchasing power of citizens.
Miettinen points out that Macron’s message was that inflation was temporary in nature and was caused by disruptions in global production chains.
Macron has suggested helping to raise the lowest pensions, food checks for the poorest of all, and extending a temporary price cap on electricity and gas, among other things.
According to Miettinen, what is happening in France over the next five years in the political field is more interesting in domestic terms.
Old ruling parties such as the Socialist Party and the Republicans are suffering a sizeable electoral defeat in the first round.
In addition, there is a strong dividing line between the left and the right among young voters.
– This may have an impact on the French political field and the questions that the French are demanding from political leaders, Miettinen says.
* You can discuss the topic until Sunday, April 24, 2022 at 11 p.m.