Less than three weeks before the European elections, we are seeing a surge in right-wing or far-right political parties in many countries. What are the consequences for the functioning of institutions? For the composition of the next commission? The analysis of Alberto Alemanno, professor of law at HEC Paris and holder of the Jean Monnet Chair in European law.
L’Express: Across the continent, the European elections are transforming into a national referendum “for or against” the country’s leader. Can we talk about de-Europeanization of the vote?
Alberto Alemanno: The European elections have not always been just 27 national elections, organized in 27 countries, according to often different electoral rules. There has never been anything European in these elections! However, in 2009, we witnessed an attempt to create a European political space: the Treaty of Lisbon stipulates that it is up to the Parliament to elect the President of the European Commission following a proposal from the European Council. A trial balloon to create a form of parliamentary democracy with a government that needs the confidence of a Parliament.
This led European political parties, which moreover are quite invisible in the eyes of citizens, to nominate “elite leader” candidates, effectively leading to the election of Jean-Claude Juncker as President of the European Commission. , in 2014. This process was interrupted in 2019. Even if it is her political family, Ursula von der Leyen was not the candidate nominated by the EPP, the party that emerged victorious at the polls. And she was still elected after a clever political game. So we went back. Today, we are witnessing a form of political ethnocentrism: this election is an opportunity to have a form of referendum “for or against the current leader” in each country. The situation is very paradoxical. Because at the same time, voters became aware of Europe’s contribution at the time of Covid with access to the vaccine and since the invasion of Ukraine. They know perfectly well that Europe is the perfect level to deal with current issues.
Emmanuel Macron has a very alarmist speech about Europe, even going so far as to speak of danger to life. How do you judge this posture and should we not rather emphasize all the progress of recent years?
It is very interesting to observe how the positioning of the President of the Republic has changed over the years. He was one of the first leaders to present Europe as a living entity capable of protecting European citizens from internal and external risks. And all of a sudden, he decided to adopt a rather alarmist attitude, in order to obtain a somewhat forced vote in France. This is a dangerous posture that risks backfiring. This electoral narrative will not succeed. This is quite counterintuitive and damaging. Because Europe has never done so much in the last five years for citizens, and no one is really there to remind us of that. One example among others is thanks to the SURE program during the pandemic that many countries, particularly in southern Europe, were able to finance partial unemployment measures and guarantee the work of millions of European employees.
If we are to believe the polls, the European Parliament emerging from the polls on June 9 will be much more to the right. What consequences can this shift have on the conduct of European policies?
In reality, there are two possible scenarios. The first is that the EPP – the center-right party which will undoubtedly still come out on top in terms of number of deputies – associated with the Renew group and the social democrats, manages to build a coalition. In this case we should observe a certain continuity of the policies followed. But there is another scenario, more dangerous: that where the EPP decides to form an alliance further on its right, that is to say with the ECR group of Giorgia Meloni. This would give rise to profoundly different policies. In all cases, and even without going as far as this extreme scenario, the first consequence of this shift to the right will be a sharp slowdown in the greening of policies.
Parts of the Green Deal that have not yet been adopted will probably be abandoned, and this is particularly the case with regulations on pesticides. In trade matters too, we should observe a tightening of protectionist measures in the wake of what the United States is doing: protecting the European market to create European champions. Finally, everything will depend on what happens in the United States next November following the presidential elections. The right-wing of European politics could be much stronger if Donald Trump is elected. Here too, it is a paradox: the results of the American elections could be much more important for Europe than the results of the European elections.
Can this right-wing movement have consequences for the formation of the European Commission and the retention of Ursula von der Leyen at its head?
The composition of the next Commission will take time. We will first have to identify the new political nerve centers of the European Parliament. Remember that the presidency of the Commission is the result of two votes. It is first the European Council which decides by proposing a name. However, today Ursula von der Leyen is not necessarily assured of a majority in the Council.
Governments that are directly and entirely linked to the EPP are only a minority. And remember that even within her own party, the EPP, she only had a narrow nomination. Afterwards, she will have to win the vote in the European Parliament and here again, everything will depend on the alliances and the pledges given to this or that party. All of this creates great uncertainty. Moreover, the EPP has already requested that the election of the president of the Commission be postponed from July to September.
And your prediction?
I don’t think she will be the next president. I see a desire for change in Brussels. Ursula von der Leyen’s ideological about-faces ended up annoying. She has moved closer to the left in recent years by supporting the Green Deal, she is moving to the right on migration policy. And now, for purely political reasons – consolidating the support of the EPP and the German right – she says she is ready to take a break from adopting the climate package. We don’t really understand what his vision for Europe ultimately is, other than keeping his job.
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