It’s crazy how the dissolution has really clarified everything! This second five-year term is definitely like no other. The last reshuffle with Gabriel Attal at its head is already far away, the European elections are barely over when the president decides to call legislative elections. With the result that we know… More than ever, behind the scenes, some are learning to dodge the trip-ups, others are familiarizing themselves with the art of conspiracy, in short, everyone is preparing for the post-Emmanuel Macron era with rigor and determination.
LR-RN MPs: the Assembly, very little for them
The deputies elected thanks to the alliance between the National Rally and Eric Ciotti have understood it well: the legislature is going to be complicated for them. Composed of only 16 deputies, the group chaired by the elected representative of the Alpes-Maritimes remains threatened with dissolution, and does not constitute the pivotal force hoped for by the (contested) president of the Republicans. So, some deputies have already mourned their parliamentary activity: “We understood well that we would only be in a basic opposition game, so most of us are counting on their status to work as much as possible on their local implantation and their presence in the constituency.” Eric Ciotti should be delighted to chair a phantom group.
Greens and ex-LFI must coexist
It is not the marriage of carp and rabbit, but the reception of the LFI deputies that Jean-Luc Mélenchon purged in the environmentalist group questions more than one within the New Popular Front. And for good reason, the political line of a François Ruffin, elected from a working-class land where the RN is progressing and the Greens exist very little, is often contrary to that of the deputies, elected from large cities for many. Nuclear, hunting, meat… The disagreements are numerous.
Thus, the newcomers (Corbière, Ruffin, Autain, Simonnet) and their green hosts, supervised by Cyrille Châtelain, had “a discussion on the political coherence of the group”, explains an eco executive. “We have a lot in common on the need for rupture, the change of the economic model or even the social victories to be sought. And we also have elected officials from rural areas, like Benoît Biteau.” There is the substance, but also the form because the ex-LFI deputies are also very media-friendly. The eco leaders warned: “we will have to build a group, not a sum of individuals. The collective above all.”
The RN torn over its relationship with the world of economics
In recent months, a milestone has been reached. In particular thanks to the figure of Jordan Bardella who, using his image and somewhat crude signals, has managed to reassure a part of the business world, which had previously been reluctant to vote for the far-right party. But in the Assembly, some Front National deputies, who support a more social line, are already asking themselves questions. How can this new, more affluent electorate be reconciled with their popular base? For a young elected official, the answer has already been found: “Money cannot dominate everything. When the time comes, we will know how to put the world of economics back in its place.” The pro-business Jordan Bardella will appreciate this.
Macronie and the Wauquiez case
Laurent Wauquiez has shown his credentials. Opposed to any government coalition, the new leader of the Republican Right (DR) group unveiled his “legislative pact” on Monday, July 21, 13 measures that he pledges to support if the next executive submits them to a vote. The central bloc acknowledges this approach, but is well aware that the putative candidate for 2027 will not go much further. The latter, keen to embody the alternation, does not want to be held accountable for Emmanuel Macron’s record. “Wauquiez has no interest in this coalition,” judges a resigning minister. “He is banking on instability. With this pact, he is simply showing that he knows how to create internal unity with his deputies.” A member of the government confirms: “He does not want to participate in anything but be a spectator of everything.”
The RN, the endless puzzle of the central bloc
Emmanuel Macron has put a coin back in the machine. The head of state judged on Tuesday July 23 that it was not a “good thing” to deprive the National Rally of key positions in the Assembly. During a group meeting, the deputies of Ensemble pour la République (EPR) had nevertheless decided by 93% not to support the candidacy of the far-right party for these key positions. Before matching words with actions. This quasi-unanimity poorly hides internal divisions.
Edouard Philippe’s party, Horizons, does not share this line. Nor do some Renaissance executives. Like this minister from the right, who fears that this exclusion will be counterproductive. “We allow the RN to hold a simple and difficult to contest speech on the exclusion of their 11 million voters.” And do not mention to this elected official the risk of institutionalization of the party. “The RN did not go from 88 deputies to 143 deputies because Sébastien Chenu was vice-president of the Assembly.”
The shadow of dissolution, a blocking factor?
He is not budging. Emmanuel Macron wants a coalition of “republican forces” to get France out of parliamentary paralysis. But doesn’t the prospect of a new dissolution in a year – it is not possible before – slow down this solution? Several elected officials think so, believing that it imprisons them in their respective electoral sociologies. “In the Assembly, everyone thinks about their territorial political balance, judges an LR executive. And therefore remains entrenched in their positions so as not to frighten their own voters.” A resigning minister almost calls on the head of state himself to resolve the situation. “He could say that he will not dissolve by 2027.” But wouldn’t such an announcement tie his hands?
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