Emmanuel Macron is an unwavering optimist. The head of state is not letting himself be discouraged by the low polls of the Renaissance list in the European elections and the sluggish campaign of his leader, Valérie Hayer. To hell with the defeatists in his camp, who will go to the polls on June 9 as we go to the scaffold. The President of the Republic still hopes to exceed 20% of the votes on Sunday, despite voting intentions stagnating between 15% and 16%. He judges privately that opinion has not yet crystallized, its volatility suggesting intense transfers of votes in the home stretch. Above all, only 55% of its 2022 voters plan to carry out their electoral duty. Mobilizing this base is a priority.
Emmanuel Macron judges that he has an Ace in his game to provoke a burst of participation: himself. “He thinks that if he doesn’t do the job, it’s a mess,” smiles a regular interlocutor. So he sticks to it. This Wednesday, the Head of State begins three days of commemorations of the 80th anniversary of the Allied Landings.
The head of state did not force Eisenhower’s hand in 1944 to take the Normandy beaches on June 6. But this coincidence of the calendar does its job, as it will enjoy media overexposure between now and June 9. Those who are sensitive to his oratorical talent will be able to listen to him this Wednesday in Saint-Lô (Manche) during a speech on the civilian victims of Allied bombings or Friday in Bayeux, scene of a major speech by General de Gaulle in 1946 .
“Don’t be ashamed of the president”
French fans of big ceremonies will have their eyes glued to Omaha Beach. He will deliver a speech on Thursday to Joe Biden, Prince William for the United Kingdom, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and around fifteen other heads of state and government. Bilateral meetings will punctuate these three days, as will an interview on the news of TF1 and France 2 devoted to international news. Don’t throw any more away!
In the presidential camp, we want to believe that this media bulimia will push Emmanuel Macron’s voters to the polls. The Renaissance staff never made the head of state invisible during the campaign. Her face appears on the leaflets, the candidate’s profession of faith, and her presence was for a time considered at Valérie Hayer’s big Parisian meeting on May 7. “People say that she is the Macronist candidate, analyzes a minister. We might as well take responsibility for it, and not be ashamed of the president. 30% of French people still support her action.”
“Our best chance is the president”
Macron, lever of mobilization: the analysis is shared within the majority. It is professed with pragmatism, without excessive enthusiasm. All attempts to mobilize the Macronist electorate have so far failed. The Ukrainian situation? Inaudible. The Bardella-Attal televised debate? It did not halt the rise of the frontist, despite a performance considered disappointing. So, you might as well take refuge behind a safe bet. The irruption of Emmanuel Macron at the 2019 European elections allowed Nathalie Loiseau to limit the damage. “Our best chance in the campaign is the president,” says a Renaissance strategist.
The erosion of power has happened there. The dashing president, incarnation of the party of order in the face of the yellow vests, is no more. The end of his reign looms, the relative majority deprives him of his complete capacity for action. The temptation of sanction voting fuels the campaign of Jordan Bardella, credited with nearly 33% of voting intentions. LR executives are struck to see that right-wing voters will place an RN ballot in the ballot box to amplify the “slap” to the president.
Emmanuel Macron’s exhibition raises a question: will it provoke more participation from the president’s supporters or adversaries? Who will gain the upper hand, love or hatred? Fundamental question in an election where the abstention rate is around 50%.
“It’s the subject of the glass being half empty or half full,” slips an advisor to the executive. On the one hand, this period dramatizes the issue of the election and can mobilize our electorate. But it is also accused to wrongly exploit his position as head of state to crush the debate.” By going to the front, Emmanuel Macron leans towards the first hypothesis. Not surprisingly, smiles an evening visitor. “He says to himself: ‘people love me, they can’t stand the government’.” On June 9, he will know if lucidity was lacking.
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