In an earlier compilation of opinion polls ahead of the upcoming new election, the National Assembly led with 34 percent of the votes, ahead of the left coalition’s 28 percent.
Now they seem to be pulling away even more, according to a new opinion poll published by the newspaper on Friday Les Echos. Jordan Bardella’s National Collection gets 37 percent of the vote there, an increase of two percentage points compared to last week’s poll.
Widely differing opinions
Emmanuel Macron’s liberal center coalition is firmly behind, with 20 percent of the vote.
France has been governed three times under coalition governments, but never before have the two likely leaders been so far apart as now. Macron and Bardella have widely differing views, among other things, regarding the EU and support for Ukraine.
On the issue of migration, the National Assembly has proposals that require the French constitution to be rewritten, among other things so that people born in France of immigrant parents should not automatically become French citizens.
Political deadlock
The French constitution states that it is primarily the prime minister who governs the country in a coalition government. But the president can at the same time refuse to sign the laws that the prime minister pushed through.
Even the president needs the prime minister’s signature on most of his decisions, for example to approve aid packages for Ukraine. This would likely mean severe lockdowns and a political stalemate in France.
“Part of his calculation”
If none of the blocs muster a majority in the National Assembly, and therefore there is no clear prime ministerial candidate – the president can choose to appoint a person completely outside politics to lead the country. This person is then tasked with finding majorities in the parliament around each given issue.
Regardless of how the election ends, Macron promises to remain in office for the rest of his term – and the fact is that the previous coalition governments strengthened the president’s position.
– I am convinced that it is part of his calculation. Letting Bardella take over power now to show his incompetence and that his policies don’t add up – to emerge victorious from the whole thing himself, says Professor Delphine Dulong.