The paradox is scathing. Three alarmist reports from the IPCC, a United Nations climate conference in Glasgow, widespread heat records on the planet, monster floods in Belgium and Germany… . But nothing helps. Last Sunday, political ecology and its two claimed candidates, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Yannick Jadot, were once again barred from the second round.
And even if the first had succeeded, he would have been wrong to attribute any merit to the green accents of his program. The future together. The environment and ecology were the decisive criterion of the vote for only 7% of voters last Sunday, according to an Elabe poll for L’Express. Far, very far behind purchasing power (37%) but also security, health, pensions, immigration. End of the month and end of the world, same fight? In the secrecy of the voting booth, the first concern swept away the second.
For some, the pill may be hard to swallow. In recent weeks, a myriad of NGOs and think tanks from various backgrounds (The Shift Project, Réseau Action Climat, Institute for Climate Economics, L’Affaire du siècle, L214) had however flooded the public debate with spreadsheets and analysis notes to measure the compatibility of the programs with our climate objectives. In almost all cases, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Yannick Jadot fought for the first two places. Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen multiplying the red stickers, synonymous with bad grades.
“With Marine Le Pen, we are falling into climate regression”
“Sunday April 24, we will have to choose between very bad and worse than very bad”, summarizes to L’Express Jean-Marc Jancovici, founding president of the Shift Project, who judges that the presidential election has in any case offered no program allowing to respond to the magnitude of the climate challenge. Should we send the two finalists back to back on this issue? Like the voting instructions given by the environmental candidates, everything except Le Pen is also essential in the minds of observers. “Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term and his proposals lead us to the status quo on the climate issue. It is up to him to do much more. But when it comes to Marine Le Pen, we are falling into climate regression. The big difference is there” , slice Neil Makaroff, Europe Manager of Climate Action Network. The candidate has nevertheless invested in this field. Under the impetus of the intellectual Hervé Juvin, since 2018 it has been refining a more “ecological” image, making “localism” and “short circuits” dear to its green eminence the base of an “ecology of the joy of living “. A concept that she opposes to “punitive ecology” and the misdeeds of “globalism” that she denounces among her opponents. She evokes like others the necessary exit from fossil fuels, and even carbon neutrality.
Still, beyond these theoretical concepts, the detailed study of the program leads to many dead ends, note observers. This is particularly the case for energy, underlines Nicolas Goldberg, expert for Terra Nova and Colombus Consulting. The latter notes, for example, that the moratorium that the candidate of the National Rally wants to impose on wind energy and photovoltaic solar “makes impossible a trajectory of reindustrialization [NDLR : pourtant chère à la candidate] of the country and the respect of climate commitments from 2030”. Equally dangerous, according to him, is the hasty exit from a European electricity market announced by Marine Le Pen. Even though this guarantees the balance of the network France, given the low availability of its nuclear fleet, an energy that the candidate wants to beef up, with the construction of five pairs of EPRs in 2031 and five others in 2035, i.e. 20 EPRs by 2050. again tick the expert. “It’s fanciful”, remarks Nicolas Goldberg.
Neil Makaroff is not reassured by looking at the details of the other proposals. Jumbled up, a throwback to the ban on thermal colanders in 2025 decided under this five-year term, considered by many to be a step forward; a relocation of food which, not being accompanied by a plan to transform it, should lead to the even more massive use of pesticides and nitrogenous fertilizers (aggravating dependence on gas) in addition to dependence on inputs from abroad to compensate for lower yields. But also, the collapse on the objectives of electrification of the vehicle fleet in favor of hybrid vehicles, the absence of measures on energy efficiency, sobriety. Finally, the measure labeled purchasing power of the reduction in VAT from 20% to 5.5% on energy products, makes people cringe. “It’s a false good idea. It will benefit those who consume the most, therefore the richest. It is therefore not a measure of social justice. Moreover, it amounts to subsidizing the purchase of fossil fuels, chaining households and France to this dependence”, he explains.
An ecological awakening for Macron?
Opposite, the tenant of the Elysée sins a lot by omission. “The inadequacy of the climate strategy is measured by the evolution of France’s current emissions. At Emmanuel Macron, there are intentions that are displayed, the president speaks of ecological planning, of sobriety, we welcome that. But it is often paid for with words,” says Matthieu Auzanneau, director of the Shift Project.
For the next five years, the candidate president still intends to associate hard cash with it. The Institute for Climate Economics (I4CE) has identified an annual budget of 10 billion euros for the transition in the candidate’s program, which will notably accelerate the renovation of buildings, the decarbonization of transport and industry, or agriculture and adaptation to climate change. Probably too little, especially since Emmanuel Macron has little or no reliance on tax or regulatory measures to encourage households and businesses to invest in the climate. It prevents. Facing him, Marine Le Pen has so far not given any leads on financing climate investments, limiting herself to indicating that her large sovereign wealth fund could be used for this purpose.
Advantage on the serious budget but also on the international stature, notes Wandrille Jumeaux, founder of the association Le Lierre. In the decryption of the program carried out by his organization bringing together professionals from the public service, Emmanuel Macron does not only collect good points. But the home stretch approaching, he does not want to get the wrong fight. “It is impossible to situate them on the same level. Macron, with all the flaws that we know of him, has advanced certain ecological themes in French society, through the citizens’ convention for the climate, the cancellation of projects symbols like Notre-Dame-des-Landes. Look at Marine Le Pen’s manifesto, the words ecology and environment do not even appear there.” Moreover, and in a context where the relevant level for the fight against global warming is moving to the planetary level, Wandrille Jumeaux confides that it is difficult to ignore the driving role that France has had in recent years in the concert of nations. “Who imagines tomorrow Marine Le Pen, with her isolationist strategy, having an ambitious agenda on these subjects?”
Neil Makaroff agrees. “In the European Parliament, the National Rally has systematically voted against climate measures and in particular the Green Deal, which is probably the most ambitious ever adopted to date.“No doubt resigned like many environmentalists to voting for an Emmanuel Macron whom he will have fought for years, the activist explains that he gives “no blank check” to the president-candidate. second round and while the president himself opens the door to new ecological measures to flirt with the rebellious electorate, Neil Makaroff warns: “Renovation of buildings, renewable energies, electric vehicles, social justice… his program suffers from huge gaps. There is work to do.” And a handful of days to convince.