After the first round, the center-right and the new left-wing alliance, which have almost reached the level, will gather their troops for the second round in a week, writes Annastiina Heikkilä, ‘s French journalist
PARIS Emmanuel Macronin the second term as president has begun awkwardly. Macron’s center-right election campaign has been accused of being effortless and the president’s political policies deliberately vague. Rising prices and interest rates are worrying the French, who doubt the ability of politicians to influence everyday problems.
Citizens’ boredom was evident in the ballot box on Sunday. Turnout in the first round remained at a historic low of just 47.5 percent. Macron’s center-right alliance and veteran politician Jean-Luc Mélenchonin after the first round of the parliamentary elections, are almost at 25.8% and 25.7%, respectively.
Parliamentary elections in France have been called the third round of the presidential election because they determine the presidential political margin. Parliamentary elections are held soon after the presidential election and, in general, the French have voted for an absolute majority for the presidential party, making it easier to rule.
The electoral system, the two-stage majority election, also favors the Macron party and, more generally, the political center, which is able to group itself against the candidates in the second round.
Macron is expected to grow his neck in Mélenchon in the second round of the election, but could still lose an absolute majority. The research company Ifop estimates that Macron’s party and its allies will eventually get 255 to 295 seats in the National Assembly, when an absolute majority would require at least 289 seats. The Left Alliance for Nupes is projected to have 170-200 seats.
The loss of an absolute majority would be a huge blow to Macron, as it would make it more difficult to implement reforms. Coalition governments or leadership by a simple majority are very rare in France. The last time I had to try it was in 1988 François Mitterandin prime minister Michel Rocard.
There was also something to note about the first round Marine Le Penin a reasonably good result for the far-right National Front. The party received 18.7 percent of the vote, which is likely to be enough for 20-45 seats and the formation of its own group. The rise would be big, as five years ago the party got only eight representatives to the National Assembly.
However, there is still a week to go for the second round and it is difficult to predict the distribution of seats at this stage. The fight is guaranteed to get tough as Macron and Mélenchon seek to convince new voter groups and calculate which constituencies they have the most to win.
Macron is likely to start fishing for new voters from the right, while Mélenchon’s reserves are smaller. However, the Alliance of the Left is able to take advantage of the growing dissatisfaction of the French with the situation in the country and with Macron.